President Joe Biden simply introduced he’s dropping out of the presidential race, a seismic second not just for this yr’s presidential election however American historical past.
So … now what?
It isn’t completely unprecedented for an incumbent president to not search one other time period, however the particularities round Biden — each issues about his health to carry the workplace of the presidency and the sheer measurement of a contemporary marketing campaign equipment that he controls — pushes the nation into uncharted waters. And it comes after he had already dominated the primaries to turn out to be the presumptive nominee.
There are a whole lot of questions — and a whole lot of unknowns — about this distinctive second. Right here’s what we all know to this point.
Is Biden nonetheless the president?
Sure. Whereas Biden introduced that he was stepping off the Democratic ticket, that doesn’t take away him from workplace. He stays the nation’s commander in chief till both the following president is inaugurated in January, or he chooses to step down at a later date. He mentioned in his social media assertion saying his resolution that he would end his time period.
“And whereas it has been my intention to hunt reelection, I imagine it’s in the very best curiosity of my social gathering and the nation for me to face down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the rest of my time period,” he wrote.
Virtually no Democrats who known as for Biden to step off the ticket have additionally known as on him to resign from workplace early, though some Republicans in Congress have raised that prospect.
Theoretically, Biden is also faraway from workplace by his Cupboard through the twenty fifth Modification — the identical modification that was often mentioned however in the end not invoked for then-President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6 riot in 2021 — in the event that they really feel he can not serve. Up to now, no cupboard official has indicated that.
So who’s the following Democratic nominee?
Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris offers her a serious leg-up within the battle for the nomination, however that doesn’t imply it’s a slam dunk. Though Biden confronted solely nominal opposition within the Democratic main and received practically each contest, he was not but the social gathering’s official nominee, and he can’t make a unilateral resolution.
Broadly, when Individuals vote in primaries, they don’t seem to be voting instantly for a candidate however kicking off a course of that may in the end ship delegates to the social gathering’s nationwide conference. These delegates are those who formally choose the nominee — and the Democrats’ conference hasn’t occurred but.
The conference is scheduled for Aug. 19-22 in Chicago — though social gathering leaders have been contemplating a “digital” roll name to call the nominee earlier within the month. The DNC should now determine if it needs to hold by way of with its plan.
All of these practically 3,800 Biden delegates have now turn out to be free brokers. Even with Biden’s endorsement, the delegates who have been pledged to him are underneath no obligation, in line with the Democratic Nationwide Committee’s guidelines, to comply with his lead and assist his chosen successor.
Who can run for the nomination?
Anybody who can garner sufficient signatures to have their title positioned in nomination. Candidates want signatures from at the least 300, however not more than 600, delegates — and delegates can signal just one candidate’s petition. Moreover, a candidate can’t submit greater than 50 delegates from a given state — a provision to make sure that all candidates positioned in nomination earn assist from a broad swath of the nation.
There are roughly 4,700 delegates, capping the variety of doable candidates at round 15. However functionally there will probably be far fewer: The stress to keep away from a messy nomination vote will probably be monumental.
Who’re the delegates, and the way does the roll name vote work?
Of the 4,700 conference delegates, just below 4,000 are “pledged” delegates awarded in line with the outcomes of the presidential primaries earlier this yr. Biden received roughly 95 % of them, in line with The Green Papers, a web site that tracks the arcane means of delegate choice.
There are one other roughly 750 “computerized” delegates — the group as soon as often known as “superdelegates.” They’re elected officers, social gathering leaders and former luminaries, like former presidents (Barack Obama, Invoice Clinton and Jimmy Carter) and former DNC chairs.
After the 2016 marketing campaign, these “computerized” delegates have been stripped of their position within the first spherical of voting and solely get to vote for the nominee in subsequent rounds if no candidate earns a majority on the primary poll — or if that rule is waived, as was the case in 2020, when Biden had the assist of a majority of pledged delegates.
There are questions on whether or not the DNC will proceed with that plan now that Biden has ended his marketing campaign. If the vote as an alternative happens on the conference ground, DNC guidelines present 20 minutes of nominating speeches for each licensed candidate previous to the primary poll.
If no candidate earns a majority of the vote on that first poll, computerized delegates be a part of the voting for the second spherical — and voting continues till a majority of eligible delegates have voted for a particular candidate.
That candidate formally turns into the nominee “upon the conclusion of their acceptance speech,” in line with DNC guidelines.
What in regards to the vice presidential nominee?
Functionally, the presidential nominee selects their working mate. However there may be nonetheless a DNC course of, and it’s primarily similar to the presidential nominating process with one main distinction: Automated delegates get to vote on the primary poll.
What occurs to Biden’s marketing campaign infrastructure … and the cash?
As of the top of June, Biden’s marketing campaign had $96 million within the financial institution, and staffers — and area places of work — throughout the nation. That’s an enormous quantity of infrastructure … who will get it now?
There isn’t any actual precedent for a ticket swap on this period of huge cash elections. However many marketing campaign finance specialists have argued that so long as Harris stays on the ticket — doubtlessly because the presidential nominee, but in addition if she is nominated for vp once more — she will be able to pretty seamlessly assume management of that checking account. The cash, in any case, was given to a Biden-Harris committee registered for each of them, not simply the president.
This view shouldn’t be universally held; Charlie Spies — a distinguished Republican election lawyer who briefly labored because the Republican Nationwide Committee’s chief counsel earlier this yr earlier than reportedly being chased off by Trump and his allies — argued in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Harris was not entitled to that cash, elevating the specter that someone would attempt to block that handoff in courtroom.
Campaigns also can make limitless transfers to their respective social gathering committees, so maybe the cleanest consequence — particularly if Harris shouldn’t be on the ticket — can be the Biden marketing campaign giving his money to the Democratic Nationwide Committee, which might then spend it on the upcoming elections.
However all of that is unprecedented territory.
Has this ever occurred earlier than?
Most trendy presidents have sought a second time period — with Lyndon B. Johnson as a notable exception. After assuming the rest of John F. Kennedy’s time period and profitable a full time period outright in 1964, Johnson was planning on working once more in 1968.
However he was dragged down by the unpopular Vietnam Battle, and solely squeaked out a win within the New Hampshire main. A susceptible Johnson — going through the anti-war Eugene McCarthy and a late entrance from Robert Kennedy — introduced to a shocked nation in March 1968 that he would not search his social gathering’s nomination for president.
Quickly after, Hubert Humphrey — his vp — would launch a marketing campaign of his personal. The assassination of Kennedy modified the dynamics of the race, and Humphrey received the nomination on the primary poll at a conference in Chicago that turned violent round a debate over the Vietnam Battle and the social gathering platform.
Humphrey went on to lose to Richard Nixon that November.
