Whereas the Trump administration has drastically modified the way it talks in regards to the hazard posed by Russia, American intelligence companies mentioned in an annual report on Tuesday that Russia remained an “enduring potential menace to U.S. energy, presence and world pursuits.”
On the identical day the report was launched, the director of nationwide intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, showing earlier than the Senate Intelligence Committee, described Russia as a “formidable competitor” however averted calling Moscow an adversary.
The intelligence report — an annual evaluation by federal companies of worldwide threats — discovered that Russia has the higher hand in its three-year-old full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has better leverage now to press Kyiv and its supporters to barter “an finish to the struggle that grants Moscow concessions it seeks.”
The report was not overly optimistic in regards to the Trump administration’s efforts to push for a fast cease-fire to finish the struggle, though President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine understands his place is weakening as his military’s battlefield place erodes, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is aware of the injury an prolonged battle would do to his economic system.
Nonetheless, it mentioned, “each leaders for now most likely nonetheless see the dangers of an extended struggle as lower than these of an unsatisfying settlement.”
“For Russia, optimistic battlefield tendencies permit for some strategic persistence, and for Ukraine, conceding territory or neutrality to Russia with out substantial safety ensures from the West might immediate home backlash and future insecurity,” the report mentioned.
The report mentioned Mr. Putin’s maintain on energy was extraordinarily robust. The opportunity of another chief rising “most likely is much less possible now than at any level in his quarter-century rule.”
Whereas U.S. officers steadily speak about how a lot American navy specialists have discovered from the struggle, the intelligence report mentioned Moscow has additionally discovered an enormous quantity about American capabilities, since the USA has armed Ukraine and has supplied it with battlefield intelligence.
“The struggle in Ukraine has afforded Moscow a wealth of classes concerning fight in opposition to Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale struggle,” the report mentioned. “This expertise most likely will problem future U.S. protection planning, together with in opposition to different adversaries with whom Moscow is sharing these classes discovered.”
