Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are nearly tied in three essential battleground states, based on new statewide surveys from Marist Faculty.
The Marist Poll released Thursday finds that Harris and Trump are tied at 49% amongst possible voters in North Carolina who had been requested which candidate they had been leaning towards. Of these polled who’ve made up their minds, 91% mentioned they strongly help their selection.
The race is tight in Arizona as properly, the place Trump polls only one level forward of Harris, 50% to 49%, based on the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. The identical goes for Georgia, the place 50% of possible voters are leaning in the direction of Trump and 49% say they’re extra inclined to vote for Harris.
The Marist Polls had been performed from Sept. 19-24, surveying 4,643 registered voters throughout all three states who report they’re positively voting on this yr’s election.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. (Getty Pictures)
There are 43 Electoral Faculty votes up for grabs between Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump, a Republican, received all three in his 2016 victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, however misplaced Arizona and Georgia to President Biden in his 2020 defeat. North Carolina, a swing state that Trump received twice, has an incumbent Democratic governor and seems extra aggressive this yr because the Republican candidate for governor, Mark Robinson, is mired in scandal over posts he allegedly made on a porn web site and polls poorly towards state Lawyer Common Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate.
“North Carolina, with its 16 electoral votes, is each the Harris and Trump campaigns’ backup plan after the hard-fought battle over Pennsylvania,” mentioned Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “North Carolina is so shut that the 5 areas within the state line up now virtually precisely as they did 4 years in the past. It is as if the Biden years and the 2024 marketing campaign haven’t occurred.”
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% amongst North Carolina independents who’re prone to vote. Biden carried Tar Heel independents by 4 factors in 2020, based on the 2020 Presidential Exit Ballot. Harris leads Trump amongst Black voters 86% to 13%, however underperforms in comparison with Biden, who earned 92% of the Black vote in North Carolina in 2020. Trump has a bonus over Harris with white voters, 59% to 40%, although Harris has improved with this demographic over Biden, who received 33% of the white vote in 2020.
The highest points for North Carolina voters are inflation (32%), preserving democracy (28%), immigration (14%) and abortion (11%), based on the ballot.
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Former President Trump arrives for a marketing campaign rally at Wilmington Worldwide Airport in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Saturday. (AP Photograph/Alex Brandon)
In Arizona, Harris edges Trump amongst independents 51% to 47%. Biden received Arizona independents by 9 factors 4 years in the past, 53% to Trump’s 44%. Once more, Trump leads Harris amongst white voters 51% to 48%, whereas the Latino vote is aggressive, with 51% leaning in the direction of Trump and 49% in the direction of Harris.
The highest points for Arizona voters are preserving democracy (27%), inflation (26%), immigration (21%) and abortion (14%), the survey mentioned.
“Arizona’s 11 electoral votes are up for grabs, however the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate (Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.) has a double-digit lead,” mentioned Miringoff. “Voters within the state, like elsewhere, are prepared to separate their ticket this time not like the straight celebration voting that occurred in 2016 and 2020.”
Harris additionally leads Trump amongst Georgia independents by 5 proportion factors, 51% to 46%. Just like Arizona, Biden received Georgia independents by 9 factors in what was the primary presidential election win for Peach State Democrats since 1992. Trump closely contested the 2020 ends in Georgia and continues to make unproven allegations of widespread voter fraud which have been rejected by Georgia officers, together with Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.
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Harris campaigns in Georgia highlighting the difficulty of abortion. (Joe Raedle/Getty Pictures)
“Georgia was floor zero for election controversies in 2020. But, the overwhelming majority of Georgians specific confidence that elections will probably be honest and correct,” mentioned Miringoff. “Apparently, most Democrats and Republicans share this view regardless of the outcomes final time.”
Georgia voters rank inflation as the highest difficulty (34%), adopted by preserving democracy (24%), immigration (13%) and abortion (11%).
A Fox Information nationwide ballot taken after the primary debate between Harris and Trump spotlighted that 39% of voters surveyed mentioned the economic system was their most urgent difficulty, far forward of immigration (16%) and abortion (15%). All different points examined had been in single digits.
“An growing quantity say grocery costs and housing prices are powerful for his or her household,” the Fox Information ballot notes.
Trump led Harris on the economic system by 5 factors within the Fox Information ballot.
“The problem profile of this election continues to favor Trump,” mentioned Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox Information Ballot together with Democrat Chris Anderson.
However Shaw added that Trump’s “edge on financial points has decreased, in all probability as a consequence of Harris’ messaging on housing prices and taxes, each of which goal the center class and seem like paying off.”
Fox Information Digital’s Paul Steinhauser and Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
