The 2024 Election: What to Know About Trump, Biden, Polls and More

This transcript was created utilizing speech recognition software program. Whereas it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it could include errors. Please overview the episode audio earlier than quoting from this transcript and e-mail transcripts@nytimes.com with any questions.

[PHONE RINGING]

That is Amy.

Hello. Thanks a lot for choosing up and for, extra importantly, sending in a query to us. Are you able to first simply inform me the query that you just despatched in to the present?

Yeah, so the factor I needed to know, given the age of the presumed candidates, what does occur if one or each of those candidates dies earlier than the election? I do know that sounds harsh, however statistically talking, it’s attainable. After which what?

I suppose, like, when did this query get in your radar? I do know that’s a bizarre approach to ask.

Oh, that’s query. I believe as a result of in all probability, like loads of different individuals, this sounds bizarre, however simply searching for a manner out of this. And clearly by no unnatural ending, I don’t need that to occur to anybody. However I simply thought is there any circumstance the place it’s simply not Trump-Biden once more? Simply what’s each chance of what might occur to set this up any otherwise in any respect?

Amy isn’t alone. For the previous few months, we’ve been asking our listeners to ship in questions. And as November will get nearer, there’s an rising sense of desperation mirrored in these questions. You’re asking about third celebration candidates, well being emergencies, prison convictions, dying, issues that would alter the inevitable rematch.

It sort of feels like, as a rustic, all of us fell asleep on the prepare, and now the conductor is saying that you must get off on the final cease, that you don’t have any different selection however this one. And you’ve got this second of panic. You’re like, that is it? That is my solely possibility?

So at the moment, we take in your two largest 2024 questions. What if one thing occurs to Biden or Trump? And is anybody else coming? From “The New York Instances,” I’m Astead Herndon. That is “The Run Up.”

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Yo, what’s up?

You’re sporting a tie?

Only for you.

Do I have to go change?

No, I did CNN this morning. To begin, we turned to some extremely certified associates.

My title is Reed Epstein, and I cowl Joe Biden’s re-election marketing campaign and the broader Democratic universe for “The New York Instances.”

Within the time since Amy despatched in her query, the age problem had solely gotten extra actual. Scrutiny of President Biden’s age intensified after a current particular counsel report described him as quote, “An aged man with a poor reminiscence.” I questioned how, in your work reporting on the Biden marketing campaign and the broader Democratic Social gathering, how did that report land in Biden world, and what’s the marketing campaign’s response been?

It landed like a ton of bricks. Consider just like the previous “Far Facet” cartoons the place an anvil would drop from a tree on anyone, and it was sort of like that.

I’m glad I acquired that. I used to be fearful the place that might go.

They had been livid on the inclusion of the broadsides in opposition to the president’s reminiscence, which they universally felt had been out of bounds from his project to find out whether or not fees ought to be introduced in opposition to the president on the paperwork retention problem. They usually had been additionally mad on the protection of the particular counsel’s report. We noticed within the quick aftermath, the marketing campaign blasted reporters with the variety of tales written about Biden’s age in comparison with tales about Donald Trump.

They had been clearly taking this as a license to go to struggle, not simply with the Legal professional Basic’s workplace, which they did, but additionally the media for masking what the particular counsel stated.

As this sort of information cycle on age was growing, I completely see how the Biden marketing campaign could make this argument. They made these arguments to us immediately once we went to Wilmington, sort of saying that the issues about Joe Biden’s age had been overblown in a sort of insidery dialog I bear in mind them framing it on the time, slightly than the ways in which individuals are truly going to expertise the election. However like there are voters who’re involved, just like the caller who despatched on this query. What’s the marketing campaign doing concerning the professional voter problem relating to age waiting for the summer time and the autumn?

Nicely, I believe you’re proper. Do not need to ask voters about Joe Biden’s age. I ask loads of open ended inquiries to individuals I discuss to. And it often begins with, what do you consider Joe Biden? And inevitably, as you may have heard, too —

They are saying he’s previous.

The reply is he’s so previous I can’t consider he’s operating once more. I imply, I’ll let you know this. I used to be on trip final 12 months in Morocco, and we had been in a automotive being led by a tour information to the Sahara desert. And in that place, the man requested — we had been speaking about — he was asking us what we do for a residing.

And I informed him I’m a reporter, and he stated, “Of all of the individuals in America, is there nobody youthful than 80 years previous who can run for president?

Yeah.

And so that is really a worldwide concern that folks have about him. And so I don’t consider that the media is overplaying the difficulty and concern that voters have with Joe Biden’s age. I do assume that — and we do know that the marketing campaign is making an attempt to reframe the age query on daily basis right into a selection query between a return to Trump or Joe Biden and never a referendum on Joe Biden. Partly, as a result of we’ve seen in polling for years at this level, {that a} referendum on Joe Biden alone, the president would nearly actually lose.

And so a part of that’s them pushing tales about Trump being previous, too. And when Trump stated that Nikki Haley was in control of safety on January 6 when he met Nancy Pelosi, like they pushed that on their social media platforms. They usually pushed that out to reporters, and so they tried to make that right into a information cycle about Trump’s forgetfulness and his predilection for getting issues fallacious whereas talking to rallies.

They usually’re proper that he does try this, and he’s 77 years previous. He’s gotten loads of issues fallacious as properly, however the reality of the matter is voters obtain Trump and Biden otherwise in relation to their age and their acuity. And whereas Trump can be slipping, fairly publicly, that has not baked in for voters in the identical manner that it has been for Biden.

I imply, however that description of what you’re saying the marketing campaign’s plan is, which is to reframe the age query right into a selection query, it doesn’t truly go on the coronary heart of what voters take into consideration the president, proper? Like is there any plans to place him on the market extra? Is there any plans to have him discuss?

I used to be with somebody yesterday who says that he ought to name his financial plan like grandpa economics and sort of embrace the older individual sort of mantra. I suppose I’m questioning, is there any plans to legitimately reframe him on his age slightly than simply say Donald Trump can be previous?

I imply, they’ve gotten loads of recommendation alongside the grandpa economics traces. I’ve talked with advisors to the marketing campaign, donors to the marketing campaign, different Democratic elected officers, and lots of of them have supplied unsolicited recommendation, each on to the marketing campaign and thru the press to the marketing campaign, about how the president ought to lean into his age as a approach to reply that query. They haven’t completed that, partially as a result of the president doesn’t wish to.

Like he doesn’t need the age to be a difficulty. And they also haven’t completed it apart from he’ll make jokes about when he was with the founding fathers. However they don’t have interaction in a severe manner, the way in which that a few of their allies would really like them to. And that has led to the situation that we’ve been speaking about the place voters are involved about his age and acuity, and so they don’t do an entire lot to reply these questions.

I wish to actually concentrate on the guts of the query Amy requested us, although. Does the Democratic Social gathering have a plan if, for no matter motive, Biden turned unable to run? Does a Plan B exist someplace in some secret lock vault?

So there isn’t a Plan B. It’s — Joe Biden would be the Democratic nominee until considered one of two issues occurs. Both there’s a main well being calamity that he suffers between now and November, or Joe Biden himself decides that he’s not going to run. And for the very first thing, all of us hope that the president stays in good well being. He seems to be in good well being.

Yeah, there’s no want — we’re not wishcasting.

There’s no motive to consider that his well being is deteriorating. He appears to be — he rides his bike. He rides the Peloton. He’s a really wholesome 81-year-old man. There’s additionally no motive to consider that he’s going to get up someday and resolve this isn’t for him. Like, the person has needed to be president of the USA for many of his grownup life.

He first began severely contemplating operating for president in 1984. He ran for president thrice. He has raised already greater than $200 million on this marketing campaign for re-election. There’s no motive to assume that he’s going to vary his thoughts.

Let’s sluggish this down, although. The one two issues that would derail what looks like the inevitable path of Joe Biden changing into the Democratic nominee could be a serious well being scare that might trigger him to be unable to run.

Yeah, that’s proper. This might be a extremely severe, calamitous well being episode.

I imply, Bernie Sanders had a coronary heart assault within the 2020 election and took a few weeks off the path, if I bear in mind accurately. After all, there was the scenario with Senator John Fetterman as he was operating, however you’re saying it must be one thing that might fully shift his potential to exit on the marketing campaign path or do his duties as president.

It must be worse than these episodes, I’d assume.

The opposite possibility is for him to resolve independently that he wouldn’t wish to run anymore. Let’s say Joe Biden had been to say, in two months, I wish to step down. What would even be the method? Like what would even must occur? Wouldn’t it robotically go to the vice chairman? Like, I truly don’t know what would occur.

So I needed to make some calls on this.

Good, thanks for doing that.

Once you all informed me that I needed to reply this query, I didn’t know, both. So there’s two completely different eventualities, and it is determined by when both a choice could be made or an episode occurred. If it was earlier than the Democratic Conference in August, the delegates to the conference would select each the president and the vice chairman if there was a emptiness. It might be a free-for-all on the conference. And based mostly on what we all know usually of the make-up of who these delegates sometimes are, it will be arduous to think about a situation the place it didn’t go to Kamala Harris simply because —

These are celebration individuals. These are individuals who —

Social gathering individuals, the most important caucus is ladies. The second largest caucus is African-Individuals, and people are two teams which can be usually fairly loyal to the vice chairman. And in addition like in a situation the place Biden isn’t the nominee anymore and there’s chaos on the conference, you must marvel like what Democrats are going to step up and problem the vice chairman in that situation.

Additional including to the chaos.

Additional including to the chaos. She could possibly be in a few of these eventualities. She could possibly be the president at that time, and you then’d be difficult a sitting president and never the vice chairman. That’s a really steep political raise for anyone in that kind of chaotic setting.

The second situation is one thing occurs with Biden after the conference. There’s no precedent for this. However the Democratic Nationwide Committee chair, who’s Jaime Harrison, would check with the Democratic management in Congress and the management of the Democratic Governors Affiliation.

Wow.

And that group would then principally be approved to fill vacancies on the nationwide ticket with some conferring with the broader DNC membership, which is about 440-some individuals.

Wow.

And once more, it is a situation the place it will be like nearly unattainable for them to select anyone however the vice chairman to fill that spot based mostly on what we all know of these teams.

One, I so admire you doing this sort of reporting as a result of I’ve not thought of these eventualities. However there’s a pair issues that soar out to me. In each of these conditions, both earlier than the conference or after, this turns into an elite course of. The management of the Democratic Social gathering, whether or not on the DNC or on the Congressional stage or the gubernatorial stage, would basically get the ability to decide on who replaces Biden. Right?

That’s proper. That’s the way in which it will work.

And importantly, due to that, due to the who the individuals are who would then be making the choice and their funding within the prime ranges of the Democratic Social gathering, it turns into very tough to see this changing into a scenario that might result in somebody outdoors of the vice chairman.

It simply is a really tough situation to determine how it will be anyone else, assuming that she desires it, which there’s no motive to consider that she wouldn’t need it. You discuss to Democrats, and folks say, what about Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom or any of the individuals who ran for president in 2020? And it’s simply it’s arduous to fathom a situation the place anyone in that crew of Democrats might muster the kind of group and fundraising, basically on a second’s discover, to compete in a severe manner with the vice chairman.

Proper. I imply, it’s attention-grabbing as a result of on one hand, that is actually anticipated. That’s the reason the job of vice chairman exists. However on the similar time, it’s tremendous attention-grabbing to me that due to the unprecedented nature of this situation, and since it will solely come up in a second of chaos — like inherently, if Joe Biden isn’t going to be the individual on the poll in November, or if one thing had been to return up that had been to set off a few of these eventualities, it will inherently be a chaotic second for the celebration.

That it does appear as if the one reply to what occurs after that’s extra chaos. Prefer it doesn’t appear — like even when they had been handy it over to the vice chairman, I can’t think about that being a factor that occurs actually swimmingly. To reply Amy’s query of is there one thing that very neatly takes Joe Biden off of the trail of being the Democratic nominee? The reply to me, from what you’re telling me, appears to be no. The one motive that may occur is mess.

If — yeah, if, I imply, an alien abduction, something that took Joe Biden off the stage could be immensely chaotic and — for the political system and the American authorities on the whole. And it’s, frankly, a scenario that we’ve by no means seen earlier than. You must return to 1968 when Lyndon Johnson determined after the New Hampshire major to get out, however that was a lot earlier.

It was later within the calendar than we are actually, but it surely was a lot earlier within the means of nominating a president than what — the place the Democrats are at this level. And all people remembers that 1968 ended with riots on the Democratic celebration conference —

Additionally in Chicago.

And in addition in Chicago.

The place we’ll be this 12 months.

And a victory for Richard Nixon partially due to chaos that was — kind of engulfed the Democratic Social gathering in that cycle.

Yeah.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Thanks, Reid, to your time.

Thanks, Astead.

Lower.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Are we nonetheless in right here? Are we — when is Maggie [INAUDIBLE]?

Subsequent up, somebody to area our questions on Trump, who himself is 77 and is showing to coast within the Republican major after profitable contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. He’s additionally favored on this weekend’s South Carolina Republican Main, as he’s polling properly forward of Nikki Haley, the state’s former governor. Hey, Maggie. How are you?

Hello, Astead.

Naturally, I known as Maggie Haberman. How’s it going?

This has been a loopy morning due to these hearings.

Yeah, I’m certain.

Grasp on, let me simply — all proper, we’re good.

We simply talked to Reid Epstein, our colleague, about Biden’s age and if there was something that would occur that may sort of change the course of his sort of path to the nomination in November. And he stated there was two issues. One is a sufficiently big well being occasion, and two could be one thing that might trigger him to get up one morning and resolve that he doesn’t wish to run anymore. However each are most unlikely eventualities.

Now, we all know that Donald Trump can be of superior age. I suppose I needed to pose the identical query to you. Is there something that comes up within the sort of Plan B class that would imply that Donald Trump wasn’t the Republican nominee or that the marketing campaign wouldn’t sort of proceed its inevitable march to the conventions in November?

It’s a extremely good query. So, Astead, fascinated by what Reid stated about does Biden get up someday and resolve to not go ahead? The possibilities of that taking place for Donald Trump are near zero, if not larger than zero, much less — no matter detrimental integer you wish to use. The marketing campaign is so intertwined along with his battle for staying out of jail, on condition that he has been indicted 4 instances and is now dealing with a sure trial beginning on the finish of March in Manhattan.

In order that comes off the desk. When it comes to whether or not there could be a well being occasion, that’s not an unattainable thought. He’s anyone who, when he was president, we all know from the White Home medical doctors he had a type of coronary heart illness. It’s unlikely that that has modified dramatically in a optimistic path. We don’t know what his well being is like now, however I do know that on the finish of 2022, once they had been waiting for a marketing campaign that he was about to run, there was non-public dialogue about not holding too many occasions partially as a result of he’s previous.

They usually didn’t wish to trigger him injury by operating him into the bottom. And I do assume that that’s a part of why we’ve seen much less of him. I believe there’s different causes, too, prefer it saves them cash not placing on occasions and so forth. However his age is an element. That having been stated, it must be a catastrophic occasion to maintain him from operating. If it was one thing delicate or one thing mild, I believe he would attempt to push ahead, and I’m undecided we might even comprehend it was taking place.

Nicely, let’s attempt to separate these two issues. The very first thing you stated is that due to the sort of authorized questions swirling round him and the truth that his political marketing campaign is, frankly, his response for these issues, that that sort of decreases the probability that he would ever sort of voluntarily step out of the race. We’re speaking to you on the day when these issues are leaping off.

As you stated, there was only a trial set for his prison case in New York. I suppose I needed to simply underscore that. A part of the explanation you’re saying that there’s — not — there’s little or no probability, subsequent to zero, that Trump would voluntarily step out of the race, is as a result of he wants the marketing campaign as a solution to his authorized troubles.

Right, and as a solution to his authorized troubles each by way of a defend in the course of the instances. Bear in mind, he has claimed presidential immunity, though that’s been struck down by an appeals courtroom and is prone to go to the Supreme Court docket now Within the January 6 federal trial. However in Manhattan the place he’s dealing with trial on the finish of March, and that is associated to hush cash funds to a porn star in 2016 and in Georgia the place it’s associated to his efforts to subvert the switch of energy that he’s been charged, he’s claiming items associated both to his duties in workplace.

In Georgia or in Manhattan, that is being completed to distract from my profitable Republican presidential major marketing campaign. And I shouldn’t must face this trial as a result of we’re in the course of marketing campaign season and so forth and so forth. So the presidential marketing campaign has turn out to be a set piece.

Acquired it. Yeah, and in order that makes loads of sense. The second half you’re speaking about, relating to his age, I do assume it’s a sort of underrated level, the purpose about coronary heart illness that you just made, we discovered when he was in workplace. And that simply as we had spent loads of discuss Biden’s sort of seen decline, there was extra situations of Donald Trump. I take into consideration him complicated Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi in reference to who was operating January 6 safety.

I imply, when you consider the query of Trump’s age, how do you assume that’s going to be an element on the marketing campaign’s thoughts heading into November? Reid used the time period that the issues that might bother the Biden marketing campaign is a well being calamity. When you consider the Trump marketing campaign, is it that related customary once we take into consideration what might trigger them to sort of alter their path?

Yeah, it’s. I imply, I believe that what you’re speaking about particularly — that Nikki Haley, Nancy Pelosi second — that was actually, actually pronounced. And so pronounced that Trump felt the necessity to attempt to clear it up at a rally in South Carolina this week. When he’s making an attempt to rewrite the historical past of it and demand he actually did it on function — which he clearly didn’t when you watch the tape — then you’ll be able to see that he is aware of it is a downside, and that that is sinking in.

However I do assume it’s the identical problem if — it must be one thing important. And I’d put it, truly, even in a separate class, which is just a little completely different than Biden, as a result of we don’t see an incumbent president or not less than this incumbent president as typically as you would possibly see a challenger as a result of challengers have to be out on the highway extra. Presidents are protected by the armor of the workplace —

Doing the job.

And doing the job and don’t must be seen as a lot and all the time appear to be busy, even when we don’t have visibility into that. In Trump’s case, I believe it must be one thing that actually couldn’t be hidden. It must be an prolonged hospital keep, or it must be one thing that occurs on stage or in entrance of a crowd.

That’s attention-grabbing. I imply, you’re sort of pointing to if they may hold it away from the general public, they might if one thing had been to occur beneath that sort of public customary.

Right, and what I’m basing that on, Astead, is it’s not like we’ve no predicate for that with Trump. He was actually, actually sick with COVID, and so they had been, to place it mildly, lower than candid about what was occurring along with his well being. So I’ve no motive to consider it will be completely different this time.

Yeah, I suppose I needed to ask you additionally about some issues that got here up in our dialog with considered one of our listeners. Does the Republican Social gathering have a Plan B if it had been to not be Trump, or if one thing had been to occur? We requested this query additionally of Reid and Democrats.

It’s query, however I imply, I’d — I don’t know what Reid’s reply was. However I’d think about it’s related, which is there they. There isn’t any celebration absent Trump. Trump is actually within the means of ousting his personal hand-picked Republican Social gathering chair to attempt to get one other one who he thinks will focus extra on his false claims of widespread election fraud.

So there isn’t a they. The method works this manner. If one thing occurs forward of the conference, there must be a change within the guidelines. And it must be that the delegates course of adjustments as a result of Trump is the individual main delegates proper now. And Nikki Haley wouldn’t essentially get these by default simply because she’s the individual nonetheless actively campaigning. I believe you’d see loads of different candidates who’ve suspended their candidacies immediately begin campaigning once more, after which it will get determined on the conference.

Simply because Nikki Haley is at the moment the opposite candidate nonetheless actively operating wouldn’t inherently imply that if one thing had been to occur to Trump, Nikki Haley turns into the nominee.

Right. That isn’t how this works. If one thing had been to occur after the conference, then the 168 members of the Republican Nationwide Committee must meet once more and resolve on what occurs. And even then, Astead, it will get murky as a result of relying on when one thing would occur, you possibly can find yourself in a scenario the place it’s a write-in marketing campaign in loads of states as a result of loads of states may have printed their ballots already.

That will already say Donald Trump.

Right, and so it simply will get — it will get bushy.

So if one thing had been to occur earlier than the conference, then the delegates who formally nominate the celebration’s nominee must — there must be some rule change that permits for them to again anyone else, however that doesn’t inherently imply Nikki Haley. It might imply different individuals attempt to woo them, together with the individuals who have beforehand dropped out of the race.

If one thing had been to occur after the conference, then the insiders of the Republican Social gathering or the 168 members of the RNC would then have to pick somebody. However to your level, there’s not actual readability on any path that might go. It seems like both earlier than conference or after, if one thing had been to occur, it results in monumental quantities of questions and considerably inevitable chaos.

It’s positively going to be chaos. What stage of chaos, we don’t know, however sure, it will be chaos.

So to sum it up, in reply to our listener Amy’s query of if there’s something that takes us off of this highway of Biden-Trump — we requested sort of particularly in relation to age, well being, and the authorized issues. We requested Reid on the Democratic aspect, and his reply was extraordinarily unlikely that something would take us off this highway. I wish to pose the identical query to you. What’s the probability that this ends in November with somebody apart from Donald Trump at this level?

As a Republican?

Sure.

Extraordinarily unlikely, and may I add an asterisk to that?

Yep.

It’s going to be a protracted asterisk. There may be an episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm” the place Larry David is at a desk, and anyone spills on the desk. And his mother-in-law sits nonetheless and doesn’t transfer and says anyone get a sponge. And Larry David says, why don’t you get a sponge?

And this kind of anyone get a sponge strategy to Donald Trump, I imply, we hear this so much about it gained’t actually be Donald Trump from together with Republicans who don’t wish to take care of him but additionally from Democrats who don’t wish to take care of him anymore. And anyone get a sponge, anyone else deal with this has not been an answer. And in order that extends to all manners of issues that would occur to make him not the nominee.

This can be very, extraordinarily unlikely that he won’t be the nominee. It’s not unattainable. Something can occur, as we’ve seen.

Yeah, no, I admire it I take into consideration simply speaking to you and Reid again to again makes me consider simply the interconnected nature of this like.

Oh, yeah.

Like, I’m undecided if it wasn’t Donald Trump that we might have Joe Biden, and I’m undecided if it wasn’t Joe Biden that we might have Donald Trump on this aspect. However they each appear to not less than politically want one another on this one.

I fully agree with you. And I believe we’ve talked about this, however this race goes to really feel so much much less like 2020, not less than because it’s shaping up, than 2016, when it was two nominees with — who had — neither of whom had been president with excessive negatives. Now it’s a former president and an incumbent president, each with excessive negatives in an period the place each president has dangerous approval rankings at this level as a result of that’s simply how voters are towards elected officers.

Voters haven’t given anyone excessive marks, however they’re giving these two individuals, particularly low marks.

The nationwide numbers are a singular scenario. That’s true.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Thanks, Maggie. We actually admire your time, as all the time.

Thanks. Thanks for having me.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Yet another query after the break.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Hey, Astead.

Hey, Anna. What’s up?

Nothing a lot, one other stunning day within the workplace.

One other stunning day within the workplace.

So I’ve been producing this episode, the query and reply, listeners reaching out, and I truly ended up speaking to a listener who had a query, this man named Elly. Howdy?

Howdy.

That is Anna from “The New York Instances.”

Hello, that is Elly.

Hello, Elly. How are you doing?

I’m doing properly.

And his query was sort of in keeping with the broad beam that we’ve been speaking about. What might probably occur that might rock us off the course that we’re barreling in the direction of? To this point we’ve talked about what’s taking place inside the events, like what’s taking place with these candidates — celebration infighting and bylaws and all that kind of factor. His query was extra about outdoors forces that may make a distinction on this race.

I wrote a query asking, principally, how voters and completely different individuals in additional crucial positions are fascinated by third celebration candidates. There’s — I imply, primarily round RFK. I’m a giant supporter of RFK.

Oh, you might be.

Yeah. I’m a giant supporter of RFK, have been since starting of this summer time.

Principally, Elly’s query was, what about all of the individuals who aren’t Trump or Biden who’re or would possibly get on this race? As a result of he doesn’t see what he believes represented in both the Democratic or the Republican Social gathering.

I, on the whole, have a philosophy of optimistic politics and never detrimental politics. I attempt to withstand the urge of doomsday politicking, like you must vote for this individual or the world’s going to finish as a result of that simply incentivizes detrimental politics. And I wish to attempt to discover candidates who I truly help for what they’re saying, even when I don’t help every part they’re saying.

So like, yeah, if RFK wasn’t within the race, I in all probability would have been supportive of perhaps Cornel West. Perhaps I’d have regarded for somebody within the Inexperienced Social gathering or Libertarian Social gathering.

It’s very a lot a query in keeping with what we’ve been speaking about this entire episode, proper? Individuals wish to know is there anybody else coming? May anyone spoil the match between Trump and Biden? Like how would all of that even play out?

And so after I was fascinated by all of that, I spotted that there’s truly fairly just a few candidates or individuals on this bucket of potential third celebration, potential independents, and it’s been some time since we’ve talked about them on the present. So what I hoped to do to assist this listener along with his query is to do a lightning spherical replace, principally the place every of those candidates are and what challenges they face.

Yeah that sounds nice. Am I the — I’m the lightning spherical answerer.

Yeah, I didn’t imply for this to really feel like a pop quiz, however now I’m realizing it sort of feels like a pop quiz.

It positively appears like a pop quiz.

I’m so sorry. Did you want pop quizzes? That’s a loopy query.

We each know I didn’t like pop quizzes. Now, you and me each know. I used to be a mid scholar. The illustration Joe Biden provides is for the true C college students of America, and so I didn’t like quizzes of any type, informed earlier than or pop.

And I acquired just a little artful with all the candidates. And so I made one thing.

Oh my. Oh, it is a wheel.

Yeah.

A Wheel of Fortune wheel.

Sure, with all the those who I might provide you with. And so I figured we might spin it, and you possibly can give an replace.

Acquired it.

That is so cute. I like this.

OK, good.

[WHEEL SPINNING]

Oh, that’s — oh, God. I’m sorry. That is so humorous. It has little like —

Confetti.

Confetti. Cornel West.

Yeah, what’s up with him?

Nicely, Cornel West is a fairly well-known Black Research professor who has taught on the Harvards and the Yales.

We want you to be half and parcel of wrestling with this company duopoly, this two celebration system that impedes. It will get in the way in which of the unleashing of the sort of insurance policies of abolishing poverty and homelessness, of coping with working —

He introduced a Inexperienced Social gathering presidential run final 12 months. However then after receiving some criticism, he acquired off of the Inexperienced Social gathering ticket and is now making an attempt to start out his personal celebration, which known as a Justice for All celebration. The issue is — and I believe that is going to be a difficulty that comes up with a number of of those individuals — is while you’re not in one of many main events, it’s so much more durable to get poll entry.

Once you say poll entry, are you speaking — you’re speaking common, proper?

Yeah, I’m speaking about in November will their title seem as an possibility for individuals to vote for? So clearly, that’s step primary to really have a tangible affect on the race. So Cornel West is within the place the place I’m fairly certain he’s solely sort of at this level targeted on Florida. I believe there’s an intent to concentrate on North Carolina, however for the needs of like will this be an individual who impacts the November race, I’d say at this level, that’s trying unlikely due to the true poll challenges.

However as all the time with third celebration candidates, they’ll push points to the highest. They will push sentiments to the forefront that transcend their significance of precise votes. So I do assume Cornel West is somebody who might spotlight

Biden’s potential struggles with Black voters. He’s somebody who can spotlight, notably the struggle in Gaza and the progressive sort of leftist group who is actually upset with Biden. And I believe that may be a candidacy that threatens to stoke a few of these issues, however its Cornel West going to be on the poll in all 50 states? It’s not trying probably.

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Jill Stein.

Jill Stein. Nicely, that is useful as a result of Jill Stein has taken the place that Cornel West left on the Inexperienced Social gathering.

Democrats have betrayed their guarantees for working individuals, youth, and the local weather many times whereas Republicans don’t even make such guarantees within the first place. And each events are a hazard to our democracy, increasing —

Not like among the different candidates we’re going to speak about, poll entry isn’t Stein’s largest downside as a result of she is the Inexperienced Social gathering candidate. And so she has poll entry in a number of states as a result of the celebration already has entry. Jill Stein threatens to play the identical position she performed in 2016 when she was on the poll at the moment.

Now, bear in mind, in that shut election, there was loads of discuss whether or not third celebration votes actually pulled away from Hillary Clinton and helped spur the victory of Donald Trump. And whereas there’s some sort of proof or information to that, I believe that all the one figuring out components are overblown. It was a extremely shut election in 2016. It was a extremely shut election in 2020, and it threatens be a extremely shut election in 2024.

So in that actuality, all of those different impacts matter. And positively the chance that some individuals might observe a pattern from 2016 and perhaps again a Inexperienced Social gathering candidate over one of many two nominees could possibly be attainable. And I believe for Jill Stein particularly, there will probably be a worry that she’s going to pull from Joe Biden. However I’d say on the dimensions of efficiency relative to different candidates, I’ve not heard the Biden marketing campaign or somebody concerned in Democratic politics be notably involved about Jill Stein this time round.

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Nicely, this one’s straightforward.

Marianne Williamson.

Marianne Williamson has dropped out of the presidential race. I don’t know if that’s info that perhaps has reduce via, or if individuals even knew Marianne Williamson was operating. However the candidate that went sort of viral in 2020 about being a sort of vibes-y chacras-y model of Democratic politics. She was operating once more final 12 months as somebody who was ostensibly making an attempt to problem Joe Biden within the Democratic nomination alongside Dean Phillips, the Congressman who’s additionally taken up that mantle.

However as we’ve reported, there’s little or no urge for food within the Democratic celebration to have a aggressive major and particularly not so for the 2 candidates who’re making an attempt to mount that. And so Williamson formally dropped out a few weeks in the past and suspended her marketing campaign.

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RFK, Jr.

Yeah, so it is a sort of difficult one. RFK, Jr is by far probably the most outstanding non Trump-Biden candidate who has entered the 2024 race. Now, bear in mind, initially RFK, Jr was operating as a Democrat. So like Marianne Williamson, like Dean Phillips, he was within the Democratic major and making an attempt to run in opposition to Joe Biden.

A number of months in the past, in the direction of the tip of final 12 months, he dropped out of the Democratic race and introduced that he would run as an unbiased. And that creates some chance and a few challenges. On the chance aspect, as I used to be saying, operating within the Democratic major has not proved actually profitable for people as a result of you must run in this sort of course of that Joe Biden functionally controls via the DNC. And there hasn’t been actual motivation from base Democrats to switch Joe Biden even when they specific some satisfaction.

What there was is actual sort of polling information that claims that folks need an possibility outdoors of Biden and Trump. And that’s now the place RFK, Jr is making an attempt to place himself. As individuals bear in mind, his Tremendous PAC paid some huge cash to have a Tremendous Bowl advert that was a carbon copy of an iconic Kennedy advert that JFK ran within the 60s and sort of up to date it to say you must take into consideration somebody who was not a Democrat or Republican — [MUSIC PLAYING]

— who’s youthful than these different candidates and is sort of pitching himself because the free considering individual’s candidate. When you take a look at polling, RFK is in a unique class than the Williamsons or the Dean Phillips or the Jill Steins or Cornel Wests. Due to his title recognition, you’ll be able to see generally 10 %, 15 % of voters, even upwards of that, say they are going to be all in favour of that candidacy.

However I’d additionally say that RFK wouldn’t simply characterize a problem for Joe Biden. Donald Trump is often the one who that kind of Libertarian or cranky or doesn’t slot in a conspiratorial voter flows to, and which may not be the case if RFK can be on the poll. And in order that has created loads of worry from prime ranges of each Democrats and Republicans, who assume it’s not clear precisely who he would play spoiler for. That’s the very first thing.

Second factor is, like Cornel West, he additionally has poll entry issues. The advantage of operating in a Democratic major is, after all, when you had been to beat Joe Biden and turn out to be the nominee, you’re on the poll. As a result of he’s now saying he’s operating as an unbiased, he’s at the moment engaged in a really costly and tough effort to get his title on the poll and throughout the states. And that’s the true thorn within the candidacy aspect is the sort of logistical query of will they be capable of get on the poll?

But when he can overcome the poll entry downside and turn out to be a professional candidate on this race, that is the individual that will hold [? DNR ?] up at evening. As a result of when you can mix title, cash, and message, that’s the elements of a Ross Perot or somebody who can take a third-party candidacy and actually go far.

All proper,

Final one. Will we nonetheless spin the wheel or no?

I really feel like for — to finish the wheel, we’ve to.

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All proper

No Labels.

Yeah, it is a literal observe as much as the work we did final 12 months, however No Labels is a non-partisan, unbiased political group in Washington, DC that has tried to model itself because the group that’s above partisanship and polarization, tries to encourage bipartisanship via lawmakers and each events rejecting their extremes. Within the final 12 months, No Labels has made a really public effort to attempt to entice a candidate to run a 3rd celebration marketing campaign for president that they might help and assist get on the poll.

They known as it a unity ticket.

Precisely. They known as it a unity ticket, and the premise was that they had been going to have one celebration on the prime, a unique celebration as vice chairman, and that that’s what Individuals wanted was a sort of joint ideological ticket. Now, I believe it’s essential to level out the variations between that and the sort of RFK. That’s speaking about independence by way of choosing and selecting completely different ideological buckets however isn’t saying I’m strict proper or left.

What No Labels is speaking about is having one Republican, one Democrat in a selected ticket that’s centered round unity. And in order that was their premise. Now once we talked to No Labels, it was clear that they’d not absolutely thought via how a unity ticket was the answer to polarization. And one of many issues I actually bear in mind about that reporting is that it made clear that the sort of top-down, ideologically-driven premise that No Labels works in isn’t essentially the language of people that hate each candidates.

So while you ask, why do you hate each candidates? They could simply say as a result of they’re previous. They could simply say as a result of they don’t just like the system itself. It’s not clear that the kind of candidates No Labels was pitching as the answer — the Joe Manchins, the Mitt Romneys, the Larry Hogans — are even those who these people know or could be individuals they arrive to. In order that’s essential to say.

Now, to replace within the final 12 months, No Labels has sort of had a troublesome go at it, partially as a result of their complete technique is premised on the concept of attracting a prime tier candidate to affix their ticket. Now, the individual they’ve most tried to drift is Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who’s the extra centrist Democrat who has already introduced that he gained’t be operating for re-election in November. He simply stated final week that he wouldn’t run as a 3rd celebration candidate and shut the door on the prospect of working with No Labels.

Now, this was their best choice. That is somebody who’s doing a listening tour, speaking concerning the want for bipartisanship, and is actually the avatar for centrism in DC as an entire. However due to the low probability of success from a 3rd celebration candidate and contemplating that Manchin is somebody who does stay near President Biden, it’s not notably a shock that he determined to not ultimately be part of the No Labels ticket. But it surely does strike a giant blow to the unity ticket that they needed to challenge as a result of their prime candidate that they needed to steer that has now bowed out.

The opposite candidates they’ve talked about have additionally made completely different selections. So Larry Hogan, the previous Republican governor of Maryland, who No Labels is making an attempt to entice, he simply introduced that he was going to be operating for Senate in Maryland. In order that’s going to be a troublesome race, however extra importantly, he’s not taking the presidential possibility. And the drop off between these kind of candidates and who else they may get is so huge that it’s actually created a tough place for No Labels to be in as a result of in the event that they don’t have a candidate to actualize loads of that signing work, loads of that poll entry work, all of it sort of crumbles.

So when you’re recognizing a theme right here, it’s that our system makes it very tough for these third celebration choices to succeed. If you wish to be president, the toughest factor to do is to attempt to do this with out the Democratic or Republican events. This distinctive scenario, due to the distastefulness of candidates, has created a unique area so the RFKs, so the opposite events can garner extra curiosity. And the closeness of our elections imply that that curiosity would possibly actually matter.

However for the broader query, for the listener query of will these third celebration choices imply that we don’t have Trump v Biden, I believe that reply is clearly no. What they’ll do is complicate the calculus of how Trump versus Biden would possibly play out or affect the kind of points they’ve to handle. Or they may turn out to be a vessel for individuals to lodge their distaste.

It might not shock me if we finish this 12 months with the best variety of third celebration votes we’ve had in a very long time, and that can actually matter. However it’s overwhelmingly probably, due to the way in which that our political course of works, that the following president is both the Democratic or Republican nominee.

Thanks.

Thanks, Anna, admire it. [MUSIC PLAYING]

Thanks a lot for the questions. We’ll hold answering them frequently on the present, so hold sending them in. And we’re sport to deal with no matter you’re interested by from the highest of the ticket on down, from the intense to the political trivia you’ve all the time questioned about. Right here’s a few mine.

What’s with the donkeys and the elephants? Do superstar endorsements truly matter? Electronic mail us at therunup@nytimes.com. That’s therunup@nytimes.com. And inform us what you consider the present, too. Have an important day.

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That’s the run up for Thursday, February 22, 2024. Now, the rundown.

Former President Donald Trump and former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley have been campaigning everywhere in the state forward of this weekend’s contest there. Trump goes in because the overwhelming favourite. In a single current ballot, the previous President leads Haley 63-35 amongst these very prone to vote within the major.

In a Fox Information city corridor with Laura Ingraham in Greenville, South Carolina, on Tuesday evening —

She’s not working. She’s right here. She’s down by 30, 35 factors, and all people is aware of her. You’re not purported to lose your own home state. Shouldn’t occur anyway, and he or she’s shedding it bigly — huge, I imply, actually. I stated bigly and bigly —

Shedding it bigly, however —

— Trump took on Haley immediately. In the meantime, Haley continues on her bus tour all through the state.

I refuse to give up. South Carolina will vote on Saturday, however on Sunday, I’ll nonetheless be operating for president. I’m not going anyplace.

As an alternative, she plans to proceed campaigning past South Carolina regardless of the end result. We’re three days away from the South Carolina Republican major and 257 days away from the final election. See you subsequent week.

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“The Run Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin, and Frannie Carr Toth with unique music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman, and Elisheba Ittoop. It was blended by Sophia Lanman and reality checked by Caitlin Love.

Particular because of Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddy Masiello, Mahima Chablani, Jeffrey Miranda, and Jennifer Poyant. And eventually, when you just like the present and wish to get updates on newest episodes, observe our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y’all.

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