ALBANY, New York — After months of tightening presidential polling numbers in New York, Vice President Kamala Harris has given Democrats a little bit of respiration room within the nation’s second-largest blue stronghold.
Harris leads former President Donald Trump 53-39 amongst possible voters, in accordance with a Siena School Analysis Institute ballot launched Tuesday morning.
That 14-point lead remains to be comparatively slim — every of the previous 4 Democratic presidential nominees have loved benefits of 18 to 30 factors in summertime Siena surveys.
Nevertheless it marks an enchancment over President Joe Biden, who had slimmer leads of 8 to 10 factors in many of the month-to-month Siena polls carried out since final fall. The previous presumptive nominee’s standing stoked down-ballot Democrats’ considerations over low turnout and even raised the opportunity of New York changing into a presidential battleground.
Trump’s numbers in New York are unchanged. He was considered favorably by both 37 or 39 % of the citizens in each Siena ballot from January by way of June, together with 39 % now.
Harris has comparably extra attraction: 53 % of the citizens views her positively, in comparison with 43 % who’ve a unfavourable opinion of her. That marks an enchancment from Biden’s 42-53 favorability ranking in June.
“Voters who have been beforehand undecided in the event that they have been going to vote, or contemplating a 3rd get together candidate,” have come again to the Democrats, Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg stated.
In every of the previous 4 presidential elections, Democratic candidates have carried out a couple of factors higher in New York in November than Siena’s summer time polling projected.
Harris’ lead narrowed to 12 factors in a hypothetical six-way race. As of now, New York’s poll is because of characteristic three candidates, together with Robert Kennedy, who faces litigation trying to take away him.
Elsewhere in New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul’s ballot numbers stay weak, with solely 39 % of respondents viewing her favorably and 50 % relating to her unfavorably, in comparison with 38-49 in June.
The New Yorkers polled registered constructive views of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by a 40-33 margin that was constant together with her numbers over the previous yr.
Mike Sapraicone was considered favorably by 4 % of Democrats and 4 % of Republicans. (And for anyone who, like most Siena respondents, has no concept who he’s — Sapraicone is Gillibrand’s Republican challenger.)
Gillibrand led Sapraicone 56-33 in a head-to-head carried out after he was recognized.
The state-level Equal Rights Modification that can be on the poll in November was backed by a margin of 68-23. Siena characterised it by saying the modification “expands protections in opposition to discrimination from solely race and faith to incorporate others like ethnicity, incapacity, intercourse, sexual orientation and gender expression. It additionally protects abortion rights.”
Language for the referendum on the ERA that was authorized by the state Board of Elections final week doesn’t explicitly say that it might shield abortion, although a lawsuit brought by supporters hopes to vary that.
Two months after Hochul positioned an indefinite pause on a congestion pricing system for Manhattan, 22 % of respondents stated the tolling program “needs to be applied as rapidly as attainable,” in comparison with 59 % who stated “it needs to be completely scrapped.” A June Siena ballot discovered 23 % of individuals opposed the pause whereas 45 % supported it.
Banning good telephones in school rooms, an concept Hochul has touted in recent months, was backed 60-32.
Not like different Siena polls this yr, this one — with a 4-point margin of error — sampled possible voters moderately than registered ones. Pollsters spoke to 1,199 of them.
View the crosstabs right here.
