Republicans celebrated as they took a decisive Senate majority final week: They’d lastly discovered the best way to get previous the candidate high quality points that had tanked them for 2 cycles.
However they nonetheless have a purple-state drawback.
At the same time as President-elect Donald Trump swept each swing state, 4 of these battlegrounds are sending Democrats to the Senate. That’s the best variety of Senate-presidential ticket splits in 12 years, and a warning signal for Republicans as they attempt to shield and develop their ranks in 2026.
That 53-seat majority might be a boon to the GOP agenda subsequent yr. However three of Republicans’ wins have been in solidly pink seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. They flipped a real swing state in Pennsylvania however suffered losses in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. Meaning they’re going to fall nicely in need of the 57 seats they could have had, because of undervoting, smaller Trump coattails and well-funded and disciplined Democratic opponents.
This was the fourth straight cycle within the Trump period that Senate Republicans struggled to win purple states. In concept, Trump might have pulled a few of their prime recruits over the end line — he outperformed Senate GOP candidates in each single battleground state.
“Going into this there was an entire lot made out of the truth that Republican Senate candidates have been operating behind Trump,” stated Steven Legislation, president of the GOP tremendous PAC aligned with Senate management. “The simplest and clearest and most correct clarification of that was that they have been operating towards title manufacturers who had large benefits of incumbents.”
Each events will closely scrutinize the campaigns and their outcomes — together with Republicans’ ouster of incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania — as they fight to determine the best way to compete throughout a second Trump administration. The excellent news, stated Jason Thielman, government director of the Senate GOP marketing campaign arm, is Republicans might be higher in a position to totally flip their consideration to swing states now.
“Quick ahead into future cycles, as an alternative of getting to spend a lot cash making an attempt to unseat these Democrats in pink states,” he stated, “we’re now going to have the ability to focus all of our power and assets on these purple, swing states.”
The midterms are traditionally troublesome for the social gathering of a sitting president. Controlling for candidate high quality possible gained Republicans the Senate this time, however it wasn’t sufficient to run the desk. Heading into 2026, they must replicate their major intervention technique whereas additionally determining the best way to propel these candidates to victory in swingy states.
And Republicans needed to scheme intensely towards members of their very own social gathering to make sure victory in states that Trump gained handily, underscoring the precarious place by which they discover themselves. If left unchecked, their base will usually elevate controversial candidates, like Kari Lake, who misplaced a second consecutive statewide run in Arizona.
Montana Sen. Steve Daines, who turned chair of the Senate GOP marketing campaign arm in 2022, determined to deal with that situation head-on.
“He centered on getting high quality candidates, ensuring they really acquired the nomination, Senate Minority Chief Mitch McConnell stated Wednesday. “And as I stated, to some criticism, candidate high quality is completely important.”
Avoiding messy primaries
Daines gathered his prime aides in December 2022 for an hours-long technique session on an important query: How might they keep away from botching a 3rd try in a row to seize the bulk?
The previous two cycles haunted them. In 2020, the GOP misplaced its majority. Two years later, tarnished Republican nominees flubbed winnable races from Arizona to Georgia to Pennsylvania. This yr, they wanted to web solely two seats to ensure the bulk, they usually had a transparent path.
Huddled within the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee’s Capitol Hill headquarters, Daines’ crew landed on a plan. They’d aggressively intervene in primaries, recruiting robust contenders and clearing the sphere for them as a lot as attainable.
Daines publicly spoke out towards problematic candidates who have been contemplating runs, resembling Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke. And nationwide Republicans moved to dam others, together with the 2018 candidates who misplaced to Sens. Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana.
McConnell personally visited West Virginia to court docket Gov. Jim Justice, a well-liked Democrat-turned-Republican who the GOP believed would spook Manchin out of the race. And within the technique session on the NRSC, Daines got here up with a recruiting suggestion for his house state of Montana: former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy.
Daines additionally curried favor with Trump, turning into the primary member of Senate GOP management to endorse his 2024 run. He lobbied Trump to again his most popular Senate picks, together with Justice and Sheehy, giving them priceless foreign money of their primaries. Trump was essential in clearing what might have been messy fields, together with in Michigan, the place a GOP major candidate dropped out on stage at a Trump rally and endorsed the social gathering choose.
The NRSC additionally wanted to cope with different social gathering teams — particularly the anti-tax Membership for Progress, a conservative group identified for antagonizing the social gathering institution in key primaries. Reps. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) have been two of their favorites and each have been contemplating Senate runs.
The NRSC endeared itself to the Membership when it intervened to scale back major competitors for GOP Rep. Jim Banks, whom the Membership backed for an open Senate seat in deep-red Indiana.
Daines met with former Gov. Mitch Daniels, a centrist contemplating a run, and instructed him he wouldn’t endorse him within the major, in response to an individual conversant in the assembly. Daniels determined to take a seat out the race.
“That most likely was the early indication to us that we might work intently with him,” Membership for Progress President David McIntosh stated of Daines.
The group in the end didn’t appear wanting to oppose Daines’ picks. It committed $10 million to assist Mooney in West Virginia however spent only a small portion of that. McIntosh stated donors had second ideas after it turned clear that Mooney couldn’t beat Justice.
In Montana, Rosendale spent months speaking about operating for Senate, worrying nationwide Republicans who noticed him flop in 2018.
McIntosh urged him to remain within the Home. Daines had additionally tried to maintain Rosendale at bay, and he sought Trump’s endorsement for Sheehy — which landed simply hours after Rosendale launched his bid. Days later, Rosendale dropped out.
The outcome: no internecine brawls in both state, each of which they handily picked up final week.
Different pickups got here in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Republican Dave McCormick, who had misplaced a Pennsylvania Senate major in 2022, had no major competitors this time. Final week, he scored a surprising upset towards Casey, who the Related Press stated was ousted by only a fraction of a share level.
A continued battle within the battlegrounds
However McCormick’s battleground win was an anomaly.
Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) and Reps. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) gained at the same time as Trump swept their states.
Two main causes: Trump voters splitting their tickets for Democratic Senate candidates or skipping the Senate races fully.
Polls had proven for months that ticket-splitting might assist Democrats in powerful races, and lots of of them ran campaigns to win over Trump voters. Democratic Senate candidates ended up operating not less than a bit forward of Harris, whereas Republicans fell behind Trump.
“Relatively than defining the phrases of the race or our opponents round partisanship or something associated to the highest of the ticket, we constructed a case towards every Republican that was distinctive to them,” stated Christie Roberts, the manager director of the Democratic Senatorial Marketing campaign Committee.
In Arizona, Gallego campaigned at rodeos, barbeques and boxing gyms to tug in Latino voters who have been supporting Trump.
In Michigan, Slotkin, a Jewish ex-CIA analyst, won the heavily Arab-American cities of Dearborn and Dearborn Heights at the same time as Harris misplaced them amid complaints over the Biden administration’s dealing with of the battle in Gaza. She additionally did higher within the white working class areas.
“The Democrats have been fractured, which is why Harris misplaced — between the Gaza situation and the UAW lack of full assist for Harris,” former Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.) stated, referring to the highly effective United Auto Employees union. “These have been historically fairly hardcore Democrats they usually voted for Trump, after which went again to their base and voted Democrat the remainder of the way in which.”
The outcomes additionally reveal one other drawback for Senate Republicans: Tens of hundreds of Trump supporters throughout key states appeared to skip the Senate poll.
It’s regular for Senate races to see fewer votes solid than on the presidential stage, however Trump-won counties had bigger gaps than counties gained by Harris, a POLITICO evaluation discovered, suggesting it was Trump voters in Republican areas specifically who left the Senate contests clean.
“There’s one thing to be stated for the individuality of Trump and his capability to deliver folks out which might be really loyal to him and solely vote for him,” Scott Jennings, a longtime GOP strategist stated. “You want it had trickled down a bit of extra.”
McCormick’s crew performed survey analysis on these voters in Pennsylvania and struggled to take action in the course of the summer time. They poured cash into promoting throughout soccer video games within the fall to court docket Trump-only voters.
“Attending to them was our No. 1 media-buying effort,” stated Mark Harris, a prime strategist for McCormick’s marketing campaign. “Our capability to do nicely in ‘26 will considerably be contingent on reaching these actual folks and pulling them out to vote.”
Can Republicans replicate the ends in Pennsylvania?
The six presidential swing states Trump flipped this yr have seen 19 Senate races since his first election. Republicans gained simply two of them: Sen. Ron Johnson’s 2022 reelection in Wisconsin and, now, McCormick.
One huge motive for McCormick’s swing-state success: cash.
He’s the previous CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, boasting each deep private wealth and a community of linked donors. McCormick’s allies shaped a brilliant PAC that spent over $50 million on his behalf. Nationwide Republicans spent much more. The race obtained extra GOP spending than any Senate race past Ohio.
Different Republicans didn’t have that benefit. In Nevada and Wisconsin, the GOP was outspent in promoting by $20 to 25 million, in response to the monitoring agency AdImpact. In Arizona, it was $66 million.
Republicans put out a warning on the finish of the summer time that their candidates’ cash disparity would price them winnable seats if not shortly reversed.
To make up the hole, the NRSC exploited a loophole in marketing campaign finance legislation, operating adverts by way of a joint fundraising committee to get the cheaper fee supplied to candidates. As soon as the FEC declined to cease them, Republicans started utilizing the technique in earnest.
It made a large distinction. In Michigan, between Labor Day and Oct. 11, Democrats have been collectively reaching a 33 % bigger broadcast viewers than Republicans. However as soon as Republicans took full benefit of their loophole, they took the lead from Oct. 11 to Election Day, reaching a roughly 10 % larger viewers than Democrats, in response to AdImpact.
Nonetheless, it got here late within the cycle.
“The actual fact our candidates have been so overwhelmed in September made these shut races and knocking off incumbents just a bit too steep of a hill,” Thielman stated.
Republicans’ capability to crack the code to successful battlegrounds will decide the sturdiness of their majority. The red-state Democrats and blue-state Republicans are largely extinct. With maybe the exception of Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, no social gathering can have the type of targets in 2026 just like the GOP had in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio this yr.
“These are states that ought to have been gone in 2018 beneath higher circumstances. That is simply the top of the most recent realignment. We have formally realigned,” stated Jesse Hunt, a Republican operative who labored on the NRSC within the 2020 cycle. “Now we’re combating over battlegrounds and Maine.”
Anthony Adragna and Jessica Piper contributed.
