About our polling averages
Our averages embody polls collected by The New York Occasions and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates alter for quite a lot of components, together with the recency and pattern measurement of a ballot, whether or not a ballot represents seemingly voters, and whether or not different polls have shifted since a ballot was performed.
We additionally consider whether or not every pollster: Has a monitor document of accuracy in latest electionsIs a member of knowledgeable polling groupConducts probability-based sampling
These parts issue into how a lot weight every ballot will get within the common. And we think about pollsters that meet at the very least two of the three standards to be “choose pollsters,” as long as they’re conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Learn extra about our methodology.
The Occasions conducts its personal nationwide and state polls in partnership with Siena School. These polls are included within the averages. Observe Occasions/Siena polling right here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of every congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historic election outcomes for these districts are calculated primarily based on votes solid inside the present boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Occasions. Particular person polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Occasions.
