About our polling averages
Our averages embody polls collected by The New York Instances and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates alter for quite a lot of elements, together with the recency and pattern dimension of a ballot, whether or not a ballot represents probably voters, and whether or not different polls have shifted since a ballot was performed.
We additionally consider whether or not every pollster: Has a observe file of accuracy in current electionsIs a member of knowledgeable polling groupConducts probability-based sampling
These parts issue into how a lot weight every ballot will get within the common. And we take into account pollsters that meet at the least two of the three standards to be “choose pollsters,” as long as they’re conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Learn extra about our methodology.
The Instances conducts its personal nationwide and state polls in partnership with Siena School. These polls are included within the averages. Observe Instances/Siena polling right here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of every congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historic election outcomes for these districts are calculated based mostly on votes solid throughout the present boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Instances. Particular person polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Instances.
