Simply two days earlier than a deliberate Christmas break, Speaker Mike Johnson is going through down the specter of a authorities shutdown and calls for from an incoming president that he can not simply ship on.
Yesterday, Trump ally Elon Musk banded with conservatives within the Home and out of doors influencers to successfully tank a bipartisan authorities funding deal that included catastrophe support and billions in farm help.
The criticism? That Uncle Sam was spending like a drunken sailor and wanted to tighten the purse strings rapidly.
However then Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance dumped gasoline on the hearth. In a lengthy post on X, they criticized Johnson’s persevering with decision deal as “a betrayal of our nation,” and demanded that Johnson increase the debt ceiling or eradicate it solely.
“Growing the debt ceiling will not be nice however we’d relatively do it on Biden’s watch,” said the joint Trump-Vance statement. “Let’s have this debate now. And we must always move a streamlined spending invoice that doesn’t give [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer and the Democrats all the pieces they need.”
The request for a debt ceiling hike blindsided many on Capitol Hill. Nevertheless it did not come out of nowhere, we’re advised.
Privately, Trump pushed Johnson to rapidly increase the debt ceiling for the reason that election, hoping to clear the decks for his post-inauguration dash. The speaker, POLITICO has realized, refused to take the request severely — in all probability as a result of he is aware of any debt ceiling improve would imply main concessions to Democrats, which may in flip imply kissing his speaker’s gavel goodbye.
Johnson’s not mistaken about that: Even earlier than Trump made his debt ceiling demand, some conservatives had been so peeved with the CR that they had been threatening to oppose Johnson’s bid for speaker early subsequent yr. Are these members actually going to get behind a snap debt ceiling hike simply because Trump stated bounce?
However from the angle of Trump’s circle, if Johnson had heeded Trump’s recommendation from the beginning, the president-elect would have protected him from any conservative blowback, permitting him to emerge together with his gavel intact. Now, Trump and his mind belief really feel annoyed that Johnson gave away concessions to Democrats with out giving Trump the debt ceiling hike he needed.
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The Elon issue
Johnson in all probability would not be on this place if it weren’t for Musk, who spent all day Wednesday stoking rage on the appropriate over Johnson’s deal.
There was little proof Trump cared a lot concerning the CR earlier than that, and POLITICO has realized that Trump’s workforce was conscious of the contours of the deal and didn’t object. It was not a matter of debate throughout Saturday’s Military-Navy recreation dialogue, which centered totally on reconciliation. And we’re additionally advised Republicans handed off the small print of the deal to these shut with Trump.
Essentially the most distinguished idea of what occurred yesterday is that this, in response to a number of Hill Republicans: Musk, because the anointed co-chair of the so-called Division of Authorities Effectivity panel, received out over his spending-slashing skis and backed Trump right into a nook.
Senior Hill Republicans are peeved that Musk — whom they see as an ally in chopping authorities waste beginning subsequent yr — started making calls for which can be not possible to placate with a Democratic president and Democratic Senate nonetheless in management. His tweeting in opposition to the invoice — usually with completely false accusations — additional difficult what was already a tough whip depend.
Underneath this idea, Trump received caught flat-footed as Musk’s opposition unfold like wildfire, igniting the appropriate — and thus needed to chime in together with his personal considerations.
What now
Johnson is in a bind, to say the least.
On the one hand, he’s struck a cope with Democrats that’s all however useless. It appears unlikely he can scrounge up sufficient votes to get the invoice by means of a two-thirds suspension vote, which might contain permitting Democrats to overwhelmingly carry the vote, which — once more — will not be nice for his speakership prospects.
However he’s additionally out of time to doubtlessly re-negotiate one thing new. Funding runs out Friday night time at midnight. Historically, these types of negotiations take weeks. And, by the best way, elevating the debt ceiling will immediate conservatives to demand additional spending cuts, solely prolonging talks.
Amongst Hill Republicans, nobody appears to understand how out. Johnson can’t simply freely give Trump what he desires — a debt ceiling improve — with out Democratic buy-in, given they management each the Senate and White Home. And keep in mind, previous debt ceiling negotiations have gone together with long-term spending cap offers, the place Democrats have keenly protected their very own pursuits in non-defense discretionary spending. Would Trump (and Musk) be okay with Johnson doing that for Democrats?
On the identical time, Hill Democrats have zero curiosity in serving to bail Johnson out, at the same time as a few of them privately really feel dangerous for him provided that he’s tried to barter in good religion solely to get railroaded by Musk, a tech billionaire-slash-political-novice who very clearly has zero thought how Capitol Hill works.
Schumer was on the ground huddling together with his members amid the chaos final night time telling them that this was the corporate line: “We’ve got a cope with Republicans, and we’re sticking with it.” Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries tweeted something similar.
The issue for Johnson is that Musk and his Twitter cronies are threatening to primarily primary Republicans who again a typical end-of-year spending invoice earlier than Trump is even in workplace. And at the same time as main threats are more likely to get previous quick with Hill Republicans, shifting ahead, Johnson must placate not solely Trump, but in addition Musk — the person some Republicans in Trump world half-jokingly name “President Musk” or “Vice President Musk,” who’s now firing off tweets and breaking issues a la Trump circa 2017.
All of it provides as much as this: The probabilities of a authorities shutdown at the moment are dramatically higher, given the ticking clock. However as all the time, the vacation jet fumes will imply lawmakers received’t wish to be right here all that lengthy. Don’t wager in opposition to a little bit Christmas miracle.
