Maps Pinpoint Where Democrats Lost Ground Since 2020 in 11 Big Cities

To offset positive factors that Donald J. Trump made in rural and suburban America in 2024, Kamala Harris wanted to do higher than Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s sturdy 2020 electoral efficiency in cities. However she ended up doing worse in city America — getting 15 % fewer votes than Mr. Biden in some cities. A New York Instances evaluation of precinct-level election outcomes — probably the most detailed out there publicly — throughout 11 cities reveals the way it occurred.

In Atlanta and its suburbs, each candidates discovered new voters, however Ms. Harris’s positive factors in precincts the place white voters had been the biggest racial or ethnic group had been canceled out by losses elsewhere. Mr. Trump’s uptick in assist from voters of coloration throughout Atlanta, together with improved efficiency within the state’s rural areas, was sufficient for him to win Georgia — a swing state he narrowly misplaced to Mr. Biden in 2020.

Chicago is emblematic of the chief drawback the Harris marketing campaign confronted in city areas — an enormous decline in votes in Democratic strongholds. Although Ms. Harris received town by a 58-point margin, she misplaced floor in practically each precinct. She picked up simply 127,000 votes in Mexican and Puerto Rican neighborhoods, 47,000 fewer than Mr. Biden earned in 2020. Mr. Trump made small positive factors throughout the board, however Ms. Harris’s losses had been a lot steeper.

In Wayne County, which incorporates Detroit, Ms. Harris struggled to seize the assist of Arab-American voters, lots of whom had been turned off by the Biden administration’s Center East insurance policies. In a swath of voting precincts spanning Dearborn and Hamtramck, which have the nation’s highest focus of individuals of Arab ancestry, Mr. Trump picked up 1000’s of votes in contrast with 2020, whereas the Democratic Occasion misplaced a fair larger quantity. Countywide, precincts with excessive shares of Arab residents made up simply 6 % of the citizens however accounted for greater than 40 % of the decline in Democratic votes.

The story in Houston was extra about Ms. Harris underperforming Mr. Biden’s 2020 vote totals than about Mr. Trump reaching sharp positive factors, particularly in Latino neighborhoods and lower-income areas. Ms. Harris’s vote whole was down 12 % general from Mr. Biden’s in 2020, and 28 % in low-income neighborhoods the place Latino voters are the biggest group.

On this quickly rising space, pink shifts had been most evident in Latino neighborhoods. Whereas Ms. Harris matched Mr. Biden’s vote whole general, Mr. Trump made important positive factors all through the world.

Mr. Trump was already widespread with the county’s giant Cuban American inhabitants, however on this election, his assist surged with Latino voters from different teams as effectively. He acquired 20 % extra whole votes in Latino neighborhoods the place Cubans should not the predominant Latino group, like these with giant populations of Nicaraguans or Colombians. This helped him flip Miami-Dade County for the primary time since 1988, additional cementing Florida as a decisively pink state.

Mr. Trump noticed positive factors on town’s South Aspect, the place there are Latino precincts with giant Mexican populations, and his elevated assist coincided with Ms. Harris’s losses there. Ms. Harris picked up votes in some white neighborhoods, however these positive factors had been erased by the losses elsewhere, permitting Mr. Trump to chop into the Democratic margin and flip the state again to the Republican column.

Latino neighborhoods accounted for practically half of Mr. Trump’s whole positive factors in his house metropolis in contrast with 2020. Whereas Ms. Harris received these precincts by a 40-point margin, that fell wanting Mr. Biden’s 66-point margin in 2020. In a metropolis with a various inhabitants of Latinos, Mr. Trump’s vote share grew amongst all of them — Puerto Rican neighborhoods, Dominican neighborhoods and Mexican neighborhoods alike.

Ms. Harris outperformed Mr. Biden in some components of town — particularly in white precincts close to the downtown space. White voters had been the biggest racial or ethnic group in 24 of the 25 precincts the place she gained probably the most votes. However Ms. Harris misplaced some assist in Latino and Black neighborhoods elsewhere within the metropolis, and the Democratic margin fell to 59 factors, from 64 factors in 2020.

Greater than half of the Democratic vote decline occurred in Latino neighborhoods, although these precincts accounted for simply 16 % of the general vote whole. Ms. Harris nonetheless received Latino neighborhoods by 23 factors, nevertheless it was a 12-point drop from the 2020 margin of Mr. Biden, who narrowly received Arizona, a Republican stronghold won only twice by Democrats since 1952.

Even this metropolis — identified for its liberalism and its significance to Ms. Harris’s profession — swung towards Mr. Trump. Ms. Harris’s losses had been particularly noticeable within the metropolis’s Asian neighborhoods, that are predominantly Chinese language however embody 1000’s of voters from different teams. Although Ms. Harris nonetheless received town by a 68-point margin, Mr. Trump gained greater than 6,000 votes on high of her vote losses.