About our polling averages
Our averages embody polls collected by The New York Occasions and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates modify for quite a lot of elements, together with the recency and pattern measurement of a ballot, whether or not a ballot represents possible voters, and whether or not different polls have shifted since a ballot was carried out.
We additionally consider whether or not every pollster: Has a monitor report of accuracy in current electionsIs a member of an expert polling groupConducts probability-based sampling
These parts issue into how a lot weight every ballot will get within the common. And we take into account pollsters that meet not less than two of the three standards to be “choose pollsters,” as long as they’re conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Learn extra about our methodology.
The Occasions conducts its personal nationwide and state polls in partnership with Siena Faculty. These polls are included within the averages. Observe Occasions/Siena polling right here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of every congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historic election outcomes for these districts are calculated primarily based on votes forged throughout the present boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Occasions. Particular person polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Occasions.
