Infamous election forecaster Allan Lichtman, aka “Prediction Professor”, who has precisely predicted almost each presidential election since 1984, means that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.
Lichtman, recognized for accurately forecasting Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 and Joe Biden’s win in 2020, bases his predictions on a method he developed referred to as the “Keys to the White Home.”
What’s the ‘Keys to the White Home’?
The “Keys to the White Home” consists of 13 true-or-false questions designed to evaluate the candidates’ strengths and weaknesses. If a candidate secures six or extra “keys,” they’re predicted to win the election.
ALSO READ| Kamala Harris to announce working mate in 6-7 days, 3 shortlisted candidates embrace…
The 13 keys to the White Home are:
- Celebration mandate
- Contest
- Incumbency
- Third social gathering
- Quick-term financial system
- Lengthy-term financial system
- Coverage change
- Social unrest
- Scandal
- Overseas/army failure
- Overseas/army success
- Incumbent charisma
- Challenger charisma
Initially of the 2024 election yr, the Democrats have been robotically granted one “key” attributable to President Biden’s incumbency. Nonetheless, a lot has modified politically for the reason that instances of forming that settlement. Ought to we go by the newest evaluation by Lichtman, the front-runner within the Democratic social gathering, Kamala Harris, at the moment holds the six keys out of the 13. These embrace pertaining to the first contest, short-term financial system, long-term financial system, coverage change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.
Lichtman instructed Information Nation that “quite a bit must go mistaken for Harris to lose.”
Alternatively, the Republicans maintain three keys: profitable the Home majority within the 2022 midterms, the present incumbent not searching for re-election, and the present incumbent missing charisma.
ALSO READ| Donald Trump blasts ‘horrible’ Paris Olympics opening ceremony: ‘It was a shame’
There are nonetheless 4 keys but to be decided: the third social gathering issue, which is critical attributable to Impartial candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presence within the race, in addition to keys for social unrest, overseas army failure, and overseas army success.
Lichtman factors out that, in response to his method, the Democrats can be projected to lose in the event that they lose three extra keys.
