Home Speaker Mike Johnson instructed different Republicans on Friday that he’s “100%” satisfied the GOP will win each chambers of Congress and the White Home regardless of tight polling, privately sharing the get together’s newest seat-by-seat predictions with two months earlier than Election Day.
Johnson spoke on a Home GOP convention name throughout which former President Donald Trump’s marketing campaign aides additionally briefed members on the state of the race, in accordance with an in depth readout of the decision supplied to POLITICO.
The Louisiana Republican laid out the trail to 218 seats and the Home majority, telling members the get together considers 211 seats to be safely of their column, with Democrats projected to win 205. That leaves 19 seats — and the bulk — up for grabs.
Republicans may “have as much as a 13-seat majority on a superb night time,” Johnson mentioned.
The speaker added that he based mostly this prediction on his expertise “on the bottom,” noting that he has traveled to 198 cities throughout 38 states whereas holding occasions. And he argued that the elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris because the Democratic nominee adjustments little concerning the electoral panorama.
Johnson particularly pointed to the Congressional Management Fund’s fundraising haul this yr, and a generic poll the place Democrats are up 1 level. He argued this can be a situation during which they win based mostly on how Home districts are drawn.
High Trump marketing campaign adviser Chris LaCivita and Trump marketing campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio then walked members by way of their perspective of the presidential state of the race, with each claiming that the information media have unfairly lined the Democratic candidate.
LaCivita famous that the upcoming presidential debate on Tuesday would be the first time Harris is actively put to the check. And LaCivita indicated he isn’t relying on Harris faceplanting the best way President Joe Biden did in June, although he nonetheless expects Trump to emerge from the talk stronger.
“If we’re constant on messaging and stand collectively, it will be a landslide,” LaCivita instructed the decision attendees, in accordance with the readout.
He additionally famous that they’re aggressive in a number of battleground states and projected confidence in flipping the Senate, arguing that Montana and West Virginia — which might be enough to win the bulk so long as Republicans don’t endure sudden defeats in Florida or Texas — are theirs to win.
Fabrizio, the Trump marketing campaign pollster, cited Nate Silver’s forecast mannequin and RealClearPolitics polling averages as he walked by way of their probabilities of beating Harris, some of which were obtained by POLITICO.
He additionally pointed to a voter group exhibiting the marketing campaign promising help: voters who’ve second jobs, noting that this has led them to outperform with minority communities.
The Trump marketing campaign moreover laid out varied voter registration developments in varied battleground states and touted their mobilization efforts throughout the nation, citing canvassing, phone-banking and hand-written postcard writing to voters as a approach to get out the vote.
