The 2024 election upended the Home map and created a number of potential new battleground seats, notably in areas with sizable Latino populations.
However what made this realignment notably surprising was that it occurred simply 4 years after states redrew their congressional maps through the decennial redistricting, the place partisan mapmakers attempt to attract protected seats that may face up to decade-long shifts.
Adam Kincaid, the chief director of the Nationwide Republican Redistricting Belief, was the GOP’s mapmaking knowledgeable within the states Republicans managed redistricting. And he was one of many first to crunch the 2024 election outcomes to see how properly the maps carried out.
His takeaway? The massive image appears to be like nice for the GOP.
“The battleground map is increasing in favor of Republicans, not in favor of Democrats,” he mentioned.
His knowledge evaluation discovered simply three Republicans in seats that Vice President Kamala Harris received: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York and Don Bacon of Nebraska — and President-elect Donald Trump solely misplaced the districts of Fitzpatrick and Lawler by a pair thousand votes. Evaluate that to after the 2022 midterms, when there have been 18 Republicans in seats that Joe Biden received in 2020.
In the meantime, there are 13 Democrats in seats that Donald Trump received. There have been solely 5 of them in the beginning of the cycle.
However there’s a third fascinating group of districts that shifted from comparatively protected Democratic seats into probably aggressive ones. POLITICO spoke to Kincaid concerning the altering Home map and why these districts would be the most fascinating ones to observe in 2026.
This transcript has been edited for size and readability.
Let’s speak about these rising battleground districts. Joe Biden received them in 2020, in some instances by a big margin, after which Trump received them in 2024.
After we had been going by means of the redistricting cycle final time, I saved saying, “Look, the Democrats are constructing a few of these seats hoping that the Trump coalition that we’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 one way or the other goes away, proper?” But when the tendencies proceed on this new path that we’ve seen, they are going to probably have overextended themselves, and that’s precisely what occurred with these rising battleground seats.
Have a look at the place you’ve Democrats in Trump seats: California’s ninth (Josh Tougher), California’s thirteenth (Adam Grey), New Mexico’s 2nd (Gabe Vasquez), Nevada’s third (Susie Lee). Texas’s twenty eighth (Henry Cuellar) and Texas’ thirty fourth (Vicente Gonzalez) grew to become aggressive as tendencies continued.
And the one which I believe individuals are type of whistling previous in Texas is the El Paso seat. The El Paso seat moved 20 factors in a single cycle.
However all of them received reelection. And Trump’s not on the poll in 2026. Why ought to we expect they’re weak?
It’s not only a Trump factor. It’s an openness to voting for Republicans. What I believe has occurred is President Trump has opened up a brand new set of battleground seats, rising battleground districts, as a result of these are seats which might be shifting away from the Democrats, whether or not due to their very own insurance policies, numerous issues that they’ve finished publicly which have turned off Hispanic voters, some African-American voters.
I hold seeing this stuff about how Democrats don’t consider that these people are realigning, that that is only a blip on the display. It’s been a blip for eight years now. How for much longer does the blip have to be for it to not be a blip anymore?
I believe it’s a mirrored image of the place the nation is headed. I don’t suppose the tendencies go away simply because President Trump not runs for president.
However was the velocity at which they shifted — inside 4 years — stunning? New Jersey’s ninth District went from a Biden +19 seat to a Trump +1.
I believe realignments occurred slowly after which unexpectedly. The one which shocked me essentially the most was New Jersey’s ninth. I used to be stunned by how shortly the El Paso seat moved.
However the numbers in California — that was what I’ve been anticipating a pair years. California’s twenty fifth — it didn’t turn out to be a Trump seat nevertheless it moved so much. It’s a working class, closely Hispanic district. And Raul Ruiz finds himself in a battleground seat once more. it was Biden +15, and now it’s Harris +2.
After they occur nationally like this, they aren’t one-offs. Ruiz goes to have to actually take into consideration how he continues to vote. So will Jim Costa.
So, no, I don’t suppose that these are unpredictable tendencies. Possibly the velocity has been stunning in some locations.
These had been seats that had been largely thought of protected earlier than 2024. They didn’t swing all the way in which from a Biden-won seat to a Trump-won seat. However they went from comparatively blue to doubtlessly aggressive. Ruiz and Costa are good examples. What are others?
Texas’ sixteenth in El Paso might find yourself being one other a kind of in a cycle or two. I wouldn’t fairly put it there but. Indiana’s 1st is a superb one, proper? Like, when redistricting occurred, there have been some people on the best who like, “We needs to be extra aggressive in Indiana. We must always have flipped Indiana’s 1st.” Have a look at it now, I went by means of and ran these numbers, Trump misplaced it by 1000 votes.
How has the map shifted within the massive image?
There have been 32 seats on the present map that Biden carried by 9 factors or much less. There at the moment are round 50 seats that Harris carried by 9 factors or much less.
Moving into, there have been 36 seats that Trump carried by 9 factors or fewer. Now there’s fewer. There’s truly 34 seats, roughly, that Trump carried by 9 or fewer. Which to my level: The battleground is transferring to the left to not the best. It’s transferring additional into Democrat territory than it was earlier than. The battleground map is increasing in favor of Republicans, not in favor of Democrats.
Does that make it simpler for Republicans to maintain the bulk?
There are 13 Democrats sitting in seats that Donald Trump carried, a few of them comfortably, that he carried by an honest margin. These are apparent tier one targets. There’s a whole lot of seats which might be seats that Biden carried in 2020 however Trump carried in 2024. Democrats have to enter districts that Trump carried and win the bulk. You’re not going to do it on Harris turf.
However one factor that all the time drives me loopy is you’re two years out from the subsequent election, and everybody’s already dooming or celebrating. We don’t know that. Each midterm isn’t a wave.
While you’re in the course of a realignment like this, I absolutely count on that a few of these seats are going to snap one path. A few of them are going to rebound again the opposite path. And it’s going to be actually fascinating for these of us who analyze this stuff to see how they carry out.
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