The tip outcome was the city tide by no means materialized for Harris, not in Philadelphia and never in different main cities throughout half a dozen battleground states.
Blue cities symbolize the core of the Democratic base — they include a mixture of liberal educated professionals and working-class voters which have lengthy sustained Democratic candidates — and the social gathering has to run up the margins in city areas to face any likelihood of profitable elections.
However this yr, the foremost cities accounted for smaller shares of the votes solid within the battleground states than 4 years in the past — successfully ceding political energy to suburban and rural voters who’re, in mixture, extra conservative. At the same time as fewer voters turned out in Philadelphia, for instance, Pennsylvania statewide had extra votes solid than in 2020.
Whereas there are variations throughout the cities, a POLITICO evaluation discovered the best decline in voter participation in all six seems to be in predominantly low-income Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. There have been some shifts towards Trump, however it was finally the turnout drop in staunchly Democratic precincts that had the best affect on city margins.
The evaluation of practically 3,000 precincts — probably the most granular election outcomes obtainable for the most important cities in six of the presidential battleground states — throughout Philadelphia, Atlanta, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Phoenix and Las Vegas paints a vivid image for why Harris misplaced floor. (Full precinct outcomes for Detroit, the most important metropolis in Michigan, weren’t obtainable as of Friday.)
How particular person voters solid their ballots shouldn’t be recognized, however stark residential segregation alongside traces of race and sophistication suggests clear patterns during which voters swung towards Trump probably the most, and who stayed house this time.
As an illustration, Trump obtained practically 3,400 extra votes than he had in 2020 throughout the 476 “predominantly Black” precincts within the six cities, outlined for POLITICO’s evaluation as locations the place no less than 85 % of residents are Black. However Harris obtained about 17,500 fewer than Biden had, a far higher affect on the general margins.
That decline in metropolis voter participation doesn’t alone clarify Harris’ defeat — Trump improved on his 2020 margins all throughout the battlegrounds, together with in purple suburbs and rural crimson counties. However the turnout hunch prevented Harris from constructing an city firewall in areas which have lengthy been bastions of Democratic energy, and it portends challenges Democrats must tackle in future elections.
“We missed one thing right here, everyone did,” stated Kevin Olasanoye, the chief director of the Democratic Social gathering of Georgia.
“What we have been speaking to voters about, they advised us with their votes that these have been vital, however they wished one thing completely different,” he stated. “Individuals have the precise to really feel like we let one slip away right here. Legitimately.”
Turnout dropped in city Black neighborhoods, driving down Harris’ vote totals
Democrats noticed the warning indicators heading into Election Day.
Polls indicating some Black voters, specifically males, have been drifting from the Democratic Social gathering raised doubts about whether or not Harris might get the margins she wanted in main city facilities like Philadelphia.
Harris nonetheless commandingly gained the precincts the place no less than 85 % of residents are Black within the six cities analyzed by POLITICO, receiving 94.6 % of the two-party votes — a complete of greater than 200,000 votes in comparison with fewer than 11,500 for Trump.
However the sobering actuality for Democrats is her numbers are a big drop from 2020 ranges. Throughout the six cities, the variety of votes declined 6.1 % from 2020 to 2024 in these predominantly Black precincts — greater than double the two.7 % falloff seen throughout the cities general.
That turnout drop accounted for a lot of what appears to be like like a shift towards Trump in Black neighborhoods.
And it cut up alongside revenue and academic traces, with the best drops coming in neighborhoods the place residents have the bottom incomes and are least more likely to be college-educated.
Within the lowest-income Black areas — the place most households make lower than $50,000 per yr — turnout dropped 7 %. In higher-income precincts, the decline was 4 %. Related gaps exist amongst precincts with various training ranges.
Some Democrats blame the social gathering’s incapacity to drive house a message that may encourage working class voters of coloration.
Mustafa Rashed, a Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist, pointed to that ultimate late-night rally within the metropolis during which Harris urged a crowd of 30,000 to “lastly flip the web page on a decade of politics that has been pushed by concern and division” and praised Republicans “who put the Structure of america above social gathering.”
That was a evident miss, he stated — enjoying up the necessity for voters to avoid wasting democracy when polls confirmed the economic system and immigration have been persistently the highest considerations for voters.
“Saying to city voters that you must assist forestall fascism and assist save democracy, individuals are like, ‘I don’t know what which means,’” he stated. “[The party was] asking individuals to uphold methods that they don’t imagine, by and enormous, are working for them.”
Turnout additionally dropped sharply in Hispanic neighborhoods, which additionally noticed swings towards Trump
Voter participation additionally plummeted in predominantly Hispanic precincts throughout the six huge cities.
The decline was even sharper than the one in Black neighborhoods — and there was a notable divergence, with Latino neighborhoods additionally swinging exhausting to the precise whilst turnout fell.
Trump gained roughly 46 % of Hispanic voters nationally, up some 14 proportion factors from 4 years in the past, in accordance with exit polls. That will be a brand new high-water mark for a GOP candidate.
The bulk-Hispanic neighborhoods within the six cities virtually universally broke for Trump. That rightward shift was constant throughout cities, revenue ranges and nation of origin. And people breaks to the precise are usually not defined simply by falling Democratic turnout alone — they have been massive sufficient to make it clear that vote-switching occurred.
Hispanic voters aren’t as represented within the city hubs of battleground states as Black voters. Nonetheless, there are greater than three dozen precincts throughout the six cities the place the inhabitants is no less than 85 % Hispanic. Mixed, these areas swung 8.2 factors towards Trump and turnout dropped by greater than 11 %.
The decreased turnout and the shifts towards Trump have been obvious throughout each low-income and middle-income Hispanic precincts. (There isn’t sufficient information from the six cities to meaningfully analyze higher-educated or higher-income Hispanic precincts.)
Philadelphia’s Fairhill neighborhood, recognized for its vibrantly painted row homes, massive murals and a historic burial floor relationship again the early 1700s, is an epicenter of town’s Hispanic communities. It has a big focus of Puerto Ricans and was an space the place Trump noticed a few of his largest positive aspects.
“Lots of people stated, effectively, you understand what? We choose loopy motherflower who truly has accomplished one thing or attempt to do one thing [different], and let’s see what occurs with Trump,” stated Charito Morales, co-founder of Philly Boricuas, which performed voter outreach for the Harris marketing campaign in Fairhill and elsewhere.
She believes many Hispanic voters right here have been motivated to solid a “punishment vote” towards Harris and Biden for a spread of points, together with stagnant financial outlooks and the unwillingness to alter path on the Israel-Hamas battle.
Morales additionally pointed to immigration, saying that the Biden-Harris administration had promised to take up legislative protections for undocumented immigrants, however the administration “by no means tried to do something till the final minute.”
White voters have been extra conservative to start with, however exhibited fewer swings
White voters in cities have lengthy damaged each extra favorably for Democrats than white voters in different areas and extra conservatively than Black or Latino voters in cities. That development continued this yr, with city white precincts transferring barely to the precise — however not as dramatically as different neighborhoods.
4 years in the past, the six cities’ precincts the place residents are no less than 85 % white went 54.6 % for Biden within the two-party vote. This yr, these precincts, virtually all of that are higher-income and higher-educated, in mixture shifted towards Trump by roughly 0.6 proportion factors. Turnout remained just like 2020 ranges.
Harris had been banking on strong turnout from a variety of voters in cities, throughout race, revenue, and training — however Trump eroded that coalition. Regardless of Harris’ repeated stops in Milwaukee, for instance, the normal liberal bastion lurched towards Trump and supplied little protection for her as he rode a wave of assist throughout the remainder of Wisconsin.
Marquette College political scientist John Johnson famous that in Milwaukee, the place the white and Black populations are roughly even, the turnout distinction among the many metropolis’s white populations was negligible — and positively not what Democrats had projected needing to assist carry the Badger State.
“Within the majority-white elements of town, numerous them voted a little bit bit extra, had a little bit bit increased turnout, possibly netted a couple of extra votes for the Harris marketing campaign,” Johnson stated, “however not the sorts of dramatic adjustments that we’ve seen in a number of the previous cycles.”
He added that Harris’ electoral woes have been exasperated by the truth that Trump made positive aspects in a number of the least-educated wards. Harris, in the meantime, was “treading water” in a number of the highest-educated wards of town — solely in a position to match, not construct upon, Biden’s efficiency.
Sean McMinn, Taylor Miller Thomas, Greta Reich, Emmy Martin and Tara Gnewikow contributed to this report.
