NEW YORK — Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo trounces Mayor Eric Adams and different candidates in a Democratic mayoral area Cuomo has not but entered — however his negatives are among the many highest of the contenders, a third-party ballot discovered.
The well-known Cuomo topped the candidates with 32 % when probably Democratic voters have been requested to decide on a favourite candidate in what might be a ranked-choice election. Following him have been former metropolis Comptroller Scott Stringer at 10 %; his successor Brad Lander at 8 %; state Sen. Jessica Ramos at 7 %; and Adams and state Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani at 6 %.
Former Bronx Borough President Rubén Díaz Jr., who mentioned he doesn’t plan to run for mayor, tied Ramos at 7 %. Candidate Michael Blake got here in at 2 % and state Sen. Zellnor Myrie at 1 %, with 18 % saying they have been uncertain who to decide on and three % choosing “different.”
“So far as mayor goes, I’m with Eric Adams so long as he’s a candidate. And that’s all I’ve to say,” Díaz Jr. mentioned.
The ballot was performed pretty early within the cycle — between Dec. 16 and Dec. 22 — and is partly pushed by title recognition. The first is on June 24, however most candidates are nonetheless ready to obtain taxpayer-backed matching funds and haven’t begun airing TV advertisements. Unbiased expenditures have but to come back collectively both. And the town’s political class is ready to see how the indicted Adams’ authorized case performs out and whether or not Cuomo finally ends up leaping into the sphere.
The ballot offered a ranked-choice pattern, which confirmed Cuomo main within the first spherical with 39 % to Stringer’s 12 %. In that hypothetical, Cuomo surpasses the 50 % victory threshold by the fifth spherical of voting, with Stringer sustaining his second-place standing at 16 % and Ramos and Lander tying at 14 %. Díaz Jr. makes it to the fifth spherical with 10 %.
The survey demonstrates that Adams — who received in 2021 within the metropolis’s first ranked-choice mayoral election — wouldn’t profit from the comparatively new apply. He stayed at 8 % from rounds one by 4, at which level he was eradicated. Town’s second Black mayor, Adams has warned of racial disparities with ranked-choice voting practices.
The survey, obtained by POLITICO, was commissioned by Progressives for Democracy in America, a 501(c)(4) based “to rectify the final inhabitants’s lack of engagement with politics and public coverage between elections.”
The group’s govt director, Alan Minsky, mentioned he paid for the ballot with a purpose to assess the state of the crowded Democratic main for mayor. “We commissioned the ballot to see which candidates is likely to be aggressive with Cuomo, given his enormous title recognition benefit,” Minsky mentioned.
Minsky’s group employed Washington based mostly Hart Analysis Associates to conduct the survey of 800 probably Democratic voters.
The outcomes for Adams are stark, they usually observe public polling that exhibits his support cratering — even earlier than federal prosecutors indicted him in September for an alleged bribery scheme. Since then, members of his scandal-scarred internal circle have give up or been fired on the behest of Gov. Kathy Hochul — an Adams ally — and the town’s Marketing campaign Finance Board has denied him matching funds. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have signaled plans to situation a superseding indictment as effectively, although time is operating out: President-elect Donald Trump, who might be sworn in on Jan. 20, has signaled an openness to pardoning Adams.
Seventy-one % of respondents reported a destructive view of Adams, in comparison with 22 % registering a optimistic one. Cuomo had a 48-44 optimistic response. The opposite, lesser-known candidates had negatives between 5 %, for Blake, and 20 %, for Stringer.
A New York Times/Siena poll of 853 probably voters in October discovered Cuomo main Adams 21 % to 11 % in a head-to-head survey query. That ballot included Lawyer Common Letitia James, who had an analogous degree of assist as Cuomo however is just not planning to run for mayor. James was not integrated into Hart’s survey.
Cuomo — who resigned from the governorship in 2021 after expenses of sexual harassment that he denies — has been making strikes towards a run for mayor whereas publicly staying mum on his intent.
The mayor and former governor have overlapping bases of Black, orthodox Jewish and Latino voters — notably reasonable Democrats who eschew left-leaning insurance policies round prison justice. Ought to he proceed together with his reelection plans, Adams would have a slim path to victory, however Cuomo is squarely in his method.
“When folks unbiasedly have a look at this administration they’re going to say pound for pound, this is among the biggest administrations within the historical past of the town,” Adams instructed POLITICO in a latest interview, making the argument for his troublesome reelection. “Circled our economic system out of Covid, cycled us out Covid, cycled us out of the best humanitarian disaster this metropolis has ever seen, cycled us out of the general public issues of safety, cycled us out of the financial situation.”
“When folks return and look over it and I’m within the New York Metropolis museum, they’re going to say wow, this dyslexic, South Jamaica, public school-educated mayor — blue collar — did one thing nobody thought he might do,” Adams added. “Nobody thought I used to be in a position to govern this metropolis; nobody.”
In response to the survey, Adams pollster Ben Tulchin mentioned, “Any polling could be very untimely — voters’ actual emotions received’t be clear till they’ve had an opportunity to be reminded of what Eric has achieved, together with lowering crime, and the place any opponents have failed.”
The upper the unfavorable score for a candidate, the higher likelihood opponents have at shaping public opinion.
And Cuomo’s would-be rivals — ought to he get into the race — have already made clear they may go after him, even when Adams finally ends up missing the assets to take action. His intensive time in New York’s political world offers potential opponents a gap to grab on his vulnerabilities, together with the scandals that drove him from energy.
Except for the sexual harassment allegations leveled in opposition to him, Cuomo additionally weathered criticism for his dealing with of nursing dwelling insurance policies throughout Covid. The general public well being disaster initially made him a nationwide celeb, however he confronted scrutiny for a way his administration reported the deaths of nursing dwelling residents, in addition to for a controversial order that prevented the services from turning away Covid-positive sufferers.
Cuomo has denied any wrongdoing and has asserted his critics have performed politics with the controversy — a competition supported by a latest Division of Justice report that concluded Trump administration officers sought to leverage the problem forward of the 2020 election.
The previous governor’s staff has additionally asserted a measure of vindication after one of many girls who accused Cuomo of inappropriate conduct dropped her lawsuit in opposition to him. He subsequently moved to sue her for defamation.
A Stringer adviser warned in a memo final 12 months that scandal-weary voters would reject a Cuomo bid for mayor. And Lander blasted Cuomo throughout a fundraiser final week as “not the management we’d like for New York Metropolis.” (Stringer was additionally accused of sexual misconduct, accusations he has denied.)
Adams, who has largely avoided criticizing Cuomo immediately, instructed POLITICO in a latest interview that he would remind voters the previous governor signed a controversial regulation limiting when money bail is required in prison instances.
— Jeff Coltin contributed to this report.
