Biden vs. Trump and Down Ballot Races to Watch on Super Tuesday: The Run-Up

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Hey, Astead.

Hey, thanks for coming. I actually recognize this. I’m pumped for it.

Yeah, OK, we’re going to attempt to make Tremendous Tuesday not really feel so tepid.

[LAUGHS]: Sure.

At present is Tremendous Tuesday. So individuals in 15 states and one territory are going to the polls in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and American Samoa.

Normally, it’s one of many largest days of the political calendar, however this yr, there’s nothing to point that it’ll change the broader image of the presidential race, that Trump and Biden are seemingly headed to a rematch. It’s a day when lots of people will make their voices heard, and there are additionally necessary down poll primaries taking place in races that would matter for management of the Home, Senate, and governorships.

So I referred to as Amy Walter. She’s the writer and editor-in-chief of the Cook dinner Political Report, which analyzes elections and campaigns. And she or he’s somebody that I belief to assist me perceive what’s value listening to this Tremendous Tuesday.

I used to be fascinated about it at the moment of, all proper, what am I going to be searching for in a few of these states for the presidential contest? And look, I’m going to be trying, particularly, in a few of these areas the place Nikki Haley has been doing higher, which is suburban areas round main metro areas, or suburban areas which were trending extra Democratic within the final eight years or so.

So we all know, for instance, in South Carolina, the place did she do finest? She did finest in and round Charleston and Hilton Head, the place many of those voters should be voting for Donald Trump, however they want a unique sort of Republican, the sort of Republican they grew up with. What she’s doing is highlighting the problem Trump has lengthy had, which is suburban, white, college-educated voters, particularly ladies, are his actual Achilles heel. And he has performed nothing between 2020 and at the moment to win them again.

However that doesn’t imply that he’s going to lose extra of them than he did in 2020. And that, to me, is the large query. It’s not a lot, is he going to lose many of those voters? After all. However is it going to be worse than the place he was 4 years in the past? And that’s the actual problem, Astead, is that the primaries can’t actually inform us that. We’re solely going to know as we get deeper into the election yr and see if there are, certainly, Nikki Haley voters who had been two-time Trump voters who say at the moment, you recognize what? I simply can’t go a 3rd spherical.

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. What about on the Democratic facet if you take a look at the panorama of both the early primaries that we’ve seen or the polling numbers that we’ve seen? I’m curious of what your temperature check-ins on simply how a lot hassle Biden is in, or is a few of this a freakout with lack of proof?

Proper. There’s positively a motive to be anxious or freaked out, or regardless of the time period is, when you’re within the Biden camp as a result of it’s fairly clear that there’s a vital group of voters who should not but bought on Donald Trump, however who actually aren’t into Joe Biden both.

These could also be voters who voted in opposition to Trump within the final two elections, or perhaps they’re voters that haven’t been notably concerned in politics but. Possibly they had been too younger to vote in 2020, for instance. However they only should not — though they could not, as I mentioned, vote for Trump, they’re not voting for Biden.

However the different piece, too, is that one of many issues that Biden had going for him in 2020 was this concept that for voters who determine themselves as independents or perhaps extra average centrist sorts, that he was going to be the higher candidate for them. And now, these voters, I imply, once more, when you take a look at the polling, which I feel proper now’s a lot too early, however he’s not doing notably effectively with impartial voters. Trump is doing a lot, a lot better.

There’s clearly been erosion with voters of shade, each Latino voters and Black voters. And so, how actual is that? How vital is that? As I mentioned, once more, we are able to’t know from these primaries alone as a result of I feel a lot of the erosion is among the many sorts of voters who should not notably engaged in politics, definitely not this far out.

Yeah, that’s an important level. I imply, we hear this constantly. I bear in mind after we talked to Nate Cohn, he made this level that the people who the proof is pointing to that Biden is having probably the most hassle with or may very well be the potential vulnerabilities for November are merely a unique group of individuals than who’re deeply concerned in primaries, notably this major, which appears even much less engaged than earlier ones. We’re merely speaking a few completely different slice of the pie.

That’s proper.

I suppose with that panorama, we actually wished to have you ever assist us perceive the non-top of the ticket races and particularly take a look at among the races which can be taking place on Tremendous Tuesday. Are you able to give me a giant image on how issues are shaping up in terms of the race for Home and Senate management?

Certain. We are able to begin with the Senate as a result of that’s one the place the mathematics and the map actually work in opposition to the Democrats. When you take a look at simply the variety of seats which can be up, Democrats need to defend 23 seats, Republicans simply 10.

But it surely’s greater than that. It’s the sorts of seats they need to defend. So, three of the seats of these 23 are states that Trump carried in 2020 — so West Virginia, Ohio, Montana. Clearly, in West Virginia, Joe Manchin has introduced that he’s retiring. That may be a seat that Republicans are virtually assured to win.

Proper, that’s seen as an automated clip for the Republicans.

That’s proper. So, in a state that Trump carried by 40 factors, yeah, I feel that’s a fairly simple factor to say. However that additionally signifies that we should always take into consideration this election, going into 2024, that the Senate is 50/50. And in that situation, it signifies that if Trump wins, the Senate is already Republican.

The one approach the Senate stays Democratic is that if Biden wins, and so they don’t lose something. They don’t lose Montana, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. All of these states they need to defend. Now they’ll — I’m not saying they’re going to lose all of these, however to say you’ve acquired to win each single one, you possibly can’t afford to lose any of these, that could be a very, very troublesome factor.

Democrats want to comb each the entire aggressive races and win the White Home, as a result of the seat they’re virtually assured to lose in West Virginia means we’re virtually inevitably taking a look at a 50/50 Senate in the very best case situation for Democrats. OK.

Yeah, in order that’s the Senate. And on Tremendous Tuesday, we’re going to have a solution in a state that’s not precisely on that aggressive listing, and that’s California. That is major that’s actually concerning the query of which sort of Democrat goes to return to Washington, not a lot will Republicans flip this state.

Proper, we’re not getting lots of the solutions to the D versus R within the major season proper now, however there are some states which can be having sort of intercompetitive battles, one being California.

One being California, the place the large query proper now’s, will the highest two candidates, as a result of that is how California’s major works — the 2 prime vote-getters go on to face one another in November. Will these prime two vote-getters be two Democrats, or will it’s a Democrat and a Republican?

Proper now, I feel all people agrees, and the polls say the identical, that Adam Schiff, congressman from the Los Angeles space, is the frontrunner right here and is just about assured a spot within the runoff. The query is whether or not a Republican, Steve Garvey, former — for these of us who grew up within the ‘70s and ‘80s, bear in mind him because the Los Angeles Dodgers star baseball participant.

When you didn’t, then no, you most likely don’t know who he’s. However as a toddler of the ‘80s, I do bear in mind him. Or he’ll face — Schiff, that’s — will face Katie Porter from Orange County, who comes from the Elizabeth Warren wing of the get together.

Schiff, in fact, made his identify with the impeachment proceedings, the very first impeachment of Donald Trump. And that helped him in a state that’s actually costly and actually arduous to get recognized, that acquired him numerous identify ID and in addition helped him increase a ton of cash.

Yeah, yeah. What concerning the Home? How is the race shaping up in terms of management of the Home in November?

That factor is simply an absolute toss-up. I feel the best approach to consider it’s, Republicans have a five-seat majority. And there are about 25 seats that we think about to be probably the most aggressive, fairly evenly divided between the 2 events. And so, for Democrats to win, they should win one thing like 65, 70-ish p.c of the closest races so as to simply narrowly take management of the Home. That’s attainable, however once more, it’s not like, oh, effectively, they solely want 5 seats. How arduous can that be simply to get 5, proper?

Yeah, we’ve seen a lot discuss concerning the Republicans’ slim majority, the quantity of retirements, and even Democrats feeling good at their prospects of the Home, however I hear you saying, like, they nonetheless have to have a great election night time to even get the narrowest of margins.

Precisely. They actually do, as a result of, sure, they’ve numerous targets, specifically Republicans who sit in districts that Biden carried, however they’ve acquired their very own weak incumbents, a few of whom sit in districts that Trump carried in 2020, after which redistricting in North Carolina, which principally drew three Democrats out of their seats.

So, the Home is mostly a battle of inches greater than anything. It looks like we’re taking part in a soccer recreation that’s actually simply between the tip zone and the five-yard line. It’s actually who can grind their method to these few seats that they must be within the majority and certain not a really massive majority at that.

One factor that basically comes by way of in our reporting is that folks actually don’t like their choices on the prime of the ticket. If that’s one massive factor we hear whether or not on the highway or from listeners, it’s like, why do now we have these choices? And it’s like, that it bums them out concerning the prospect of voting in November.

Once we take into consideration turnout for this yr or after we take into consideration individuals’s degree of engagement or funding within the race, is there any indicators about whether or not that is going to be like a robustly participated election? As a result of in some methods, I really feel like persons are checked out. However I additionally suppose that we had massive engagement in 2022, and we had massive engagement in 2020. How ought to I weigh these issues?

Gosh, I’m with you on that, Astead. I’m very torn about that. Since you’re proper. On the one hand, when you simply take a look at the information that claims persons are actually dispirited with their selections, they’re so upset in a Congress that it seems to be an increasing number of dysfunctional on daily basis. They’re tuning out of the information. We’re seeing an increasing number of proof of this.

And so, this concept of, I don’t need to take part, I don’t know that that’s actually what’s happening and definitely by the point we get to November, as a result of I feel very similar to 2020, the stakes of the election for each side are going to be very, very clear and be broadcast time and again that there should not refined variations between these candidates. There are fairly vital variations between Joe Biden and Donald Trump and what their agenda shall be for the subsequent 4 years.

So, it appears to me that these issues are going to be critically necessary. I imply, keep in mind that right now in 2022, it was like, man, Democrats are going to get crushed within the midterms.

Yeah, completely.

They don’t have any enthusiasm, proper? Nobody desires to prove. Persons are checked out. The economic system is unhealthy, et cetera, et cetera. After which, in fact, the Dobbs choice comes out, and that adjustments all the things. However even then, we couldn’t actually measure how necessary that problem of abortion was within the sense that you simply nonetheless, within the polls, you’ll see individuals responding that, sure, the problem of abortion rights is necessary, however I’m actually involved concerning the economic system. Or, yeah, I’m involved about abortion rights, however I additionally suppose Biden’s doing a horrible job.

And so, I feel these crosscurrents are going to nonetheless — they’re going to be there. And perhaps we live in a second the place voters are going to have to regulate their expectations by way of every of those elections is extremely consequential, even when the candidates themselves should not interesting.

Yeah, I feel you actually helped us perceive that phenomenon. In 2022, you made a sort of particular reference to the kind of voters who I bear in mind you calling “meh voters,” proper? Like, I bear in mind the reason that some individuals can specific displeasure with the president or specific displeasure with the get together and nonetheless truly come out. It’s arduous for me to suppose that if we even have an election the place whether or not Donald Trump goes to jail or not, it’s like, principally, as much as whether or not —

Precisely.

— he’s president, that persons are going to not care about that. It’s arduous for me to truly suppose that.

I agree. I agree fully. I’ve taken to utilizing the Inexperienced Day track of “Wake Me Up When September Ends” as my motto for this yr, however I do suppose that’s the place numerous voters are. Like, I’ll test again in. Inform me when it’s October. And I’ll test in.

Exterior of the candidates who had been — as we’re speaking about, lots of people don’t discover all that inspiring, what are the themes or insurance policies or points that you simply suppose are going to be what the election’s about? Is there any hints, when you take a look at the Tremendous Tuesday panorama and even among the races that we’ve seen to date, about whether or not among the defining themes that would actually be the place November is received or misplaced on?

Yeah, I feel, sadly, the primaries don’t give us an important perception into that. What I do suppose they inform us quite a bit about, although, is, particularly on the Republican facet, the place so many of those primaries are taking place, in states like North Carolina the place they redrew the map, and so, now we have plenty of open, very Republican districts that may get a brand new member. And so, you’re seeing it there. And in a few of these different states which have primaries, the highest problem, which shouldn’t be stunning to anyone who follows politics, is immigration.

I feel each single advert that I’ve watched in each one in every of these races mentions immigration.

Yeah.

After which the subsequent hottest time period is Trump.

Trump has a difficulty.

Trump has a difficulty, and Trump has an endorser. And Trump has “I’ll stand with him,” or, “my opponent hasn’t been as supportive of Donald Trump.” Pondering again to 2017 and what the Congress regarded like, the Republican Congress regarded like then, and what Donald Trump was type of up in opposition to by way of the, quote unquote, now we consider it because the “outdated guard” of the Republican Social gathering, however the extra — the pre-Trumpian Republican Social gathering.

Simply within the final six years, that get together has been fully reworked. And after I take a look at these primaries and the individuals who, once more, to win these primaries, are coming to Washington in November as a result of their districts are so Republican, they received’t have a critical problem in November. They’re going to look much more like Donald Trump.

And if he wins re-election, it signifies that the Congress, there are only a few velocity bumps in the way in which that there have been for him in 2017. So, that makes for a Congress that’s going to be a lot simpler for Donald Trump to get something — not something by way of, however he may have a neater time, let’s put it that approach.

Or tougher for a Joe Biden within the second time period.

Nicely, that’s one other wonderful means to consider it, precisely, which is, the oldsters who’re coming in proper now should not operating on, you recognize what could be so nice, is that if we did some extra compromising.

[CHUCKLING]

Let’s work with the opposite facet.

Yeah. So, let’s take a look at some Tremendous Tuesday particular races. There’s been some that we checked out — you talked about North Carolina, the primary district there. There’s a pair in California, California 22, California 47, a few of these locations the place the Home races could be received or misplaced. There’s some necessary governor’s races. I’m fascinated about North Carolina once more, which goes to be what’s a intently watched one.

When you take a look at one thing that’s happening actually at the moment as of us are listening to this, what could be a race that you simply level to and say, that’s what I’ve my eye on?

Yeah, I’m trying on the North Carolina district. It’s the primary district. This can be a Democratic-held district, however it is extremely swingy and was made even a bit bit more durable in redistricting. The candidate that comes out of that major goes to matter quite a bit on the Republican facet.

The 2-time dropping candidate — her final identify is Smith — if she wins there, that most likely makes — once more, it doesn’t take it off the desk. However it could give the Democrat there, the Democratic congressman there, a greater alternative to carry on than if he will get a brand new challenger who isn’t fairly as burdened, let’s say, with numerous political issues, like this former candidate.

So, in different phrases, if we’re speaking concerning the Home as being a battle of inches, then that is a type of inches there, proper? I additionally prefer it, Astead — that is my East Coast bias displaying — as a result of I don’t have to remain up late. And you then identified the governor’s race, which can also be actually attention-grabbing. North Carolina is type of just like the Charlie and the soccer for Democrats. They arrive so shut on the federal degree, and but, by no means appear to attain that objective or that subject objective or no matter.

What Georgia was for them. Yeah.

Precisely. Precisely. And the chance right here for Republicans to select up the governor’s seat is fairly excessive. You’ve had a Democratic governor for 2 phrases, and also you’ve acquired the legislature that’s tremendous majority Republican. You’ve acquired two Republican senators.

Proper now, the polling means that whereas it’s aggressive, Trump’s — I noticed a ballot not too long ago, he was proper round 50 p.c. And but, Republicans are prone to nominate a candidate very, very far to the fitting who will match into that very same class that we noticed in 2022 with Kari Lake from Arizona and the candidate in Pennsylvania who was very a lot to the fitting on social points, cultural points. And that’s the place this candidate, Mark Robinson, is on all the things from abortion to homosexual rights to the Holocaust. I imply, it’s fairly dramatic.

This isn’t simply, oh, this can be a Trump-like candidate.

This has been the problem within the period of Trump, proper, which is state events or major voters who need to see candidates who aren’t essentially constructed for a swing state. They need a candidate that’s constructed for a crimson state who’s going to be a fighter for values of cultural and in any other case conservative or Trump conservative voters. However that’s not the state.

Sure, I imply, the candidate you’re referring to, Mark Robinson, is an efficient instance of any such phenomenon within the Trump period. As we had in 2022, there are candidates who’ve normal themselves because the “inform it like it’s,” straight shooter, grievance-driven, politically incorrect model, MAGA candidates. And this man is actually on the prime of the listing. He has referred to as the Holocaust “hogwash” in a Fb publish. He has been fully out of step, even on points like abortion and denying the final election.

I imply, if you take a look at the panorama of Republican candidates, is it feeling as — I don’t have a greater phrase — as Trumpy because the 2022 slate was? I imply, that famously failed, proper? Like, you’ll suppose that in a aggressive race like a North Carolina governor’s race, we might not be again right here with the identical sort of candidate.

Precisely, that you’d say, I don’t know. I sort of really feel like we’ve seen this film earlier than. But it surely appears to me that that’s not actually — if the precedence is the struggle, then successful isn’t essentially what you’re at all times aiming for.

Yeah, that’s actually —

The struggle is what you need. And the struggle is for one thing greater and extra, I suppose, existential than simply, did we win this final election? And I feel it additionally speaks to this concept that the bubble-ification perhaps of our events, proper, that every of them are talking solely to the teams that they’re most intently aligned with, versus understanding that in a state that’s purple, you bought to have the ability to win over impartial voters. You possibly can’t simply get your base.

It’s fascinating, although, Astead, as a result of simply as we mentioned how shut the race for the Home shall be, we’re fairly positive that the presidential race additionally going to return down to simply, proper, a number of thousand votes right here and there. When you’re at all times just some thousand votes from successful, then it makes it actually arduous so that you can take a great, sincere look within the mirror and say, perhaps we should always change the way in which we do issues, proper?

The polarization is such the place if it’s 49-51 each time, it’s arduous to get that ship to vary programs in every course.

That’s proper. Since you say, effectively, subsequent yr, it may be the opposite approach round. We are able to get 50. And the occasions when the events have actually type of gotten themselves again on observe is once they acquired walloped, proper? Like dropping election after election. And never simply by some extent or two, however like, oh, hey, take a look at Democrats all through the ‘80s and the presidential elections there the place they’re simply getting worn out. That’s if you say, OK, what we’re doing isn’t working.

But when we nonetheless dwell in an period the place you’re simply continually going backwards and forwards about who has the White Home and who has the Home, and perhaps the Senate is up for grabs right here and there, effectively, it doesn’t offer you a lot incentive to vary.

When individuals get up on Wednesday morning, what ought to they be searching for? What ought to be the primary place they appear to on the map?

Hmm, that’s an excellent query. I feel what we shall be curious to see is on the presidential degree, did Donald Trump put numbers on the map, even in states and in locations the place a Nikki Haley on paper would do effectively? To me, what that means is that no matter power there may be or was for a Nikki Haley to maintain up this struggle, that that has just about gone away.

So, I’ll be curious to see that. As a result of now we have locations like Massachusetts and Vermont and Virginia. So I’m right here in Northern Virginia. I’m very curious to see what turnout seems to be like right here. This can be a state that notably has been shifting an increasing number of from even purple to blue. However what if Trump is doing actually, very well right here? To me, that means that, as I mentioned, that no matter power there was behind type of sending a message to Trump or supporting Nikki Haley is gone.

After which, as I mentioned, I wish to suppose we’ll have a solution in California for the Senate race. I don’t know that we are going to. And in these Home races, in these primaries, the sorts of candidates that got here out goes to inform us a narrative of, had been any of the candidates who didn’t model themselves within the Home Freedom Caucus mildew or who had been, say, backed by extra, quote unquote, “institution sorts” make it by way of?

Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Thanks a lot, Amy. I recognize your time.

Yeah, thanks, Astead.

That’s it for this particular Tremendous Tuesday version of “The Run-Up.” We’ll be again on Thursday with a take a look at President Biden’s marketing campaign.

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“The Run-Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry, Lisa Tobin, and Frannie Carr Toth, with authentic music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman, and Elisheba Ittoop. It was combined by Sophia Lanman and fact-checked by Caitlin Love. Particular because of Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddy Masiello, Mahima Chablani, and Jeffrey Miranda.

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