Now, simply because it’s straightforward guilty Mr. Biden’s age for his political woes doesn’t make it so. There’s little doubt that voters have considerations, nevertheless it’s very onerous to determine how a lot help it’s costing Mr. Biden within the polls. We are able to’t know, as an illustration, what his approval score could be if he had been 10 or 20 years youthful. Possibly it will be almost as low, due to the border, the Center East, earlier inflation, lingering resentments and anxieties after the pandemic — alongside the corroding results of partisan polarization.
Why can’t we all know? The age concern shouldn’t be just like the economic system, during which simply measurable knowledge helps us make sense of its import. We all know 10 % inflation or 10 % unemployment might be ample to value a president re-election. We’ve seen it earlier than, primarily based on many years of onerous knowledge. In distinction, the severity of Mr. Biden’s age downside is sort of fully up for debate. That notion is generally subjective — primarily based on how he seems and sounds, not merely primarily based on the actual fact of his being 81. (Mr. Trump is 77.)
Superficial and subjective points like these are onerous to investigate, as evidenced by the very wide selection of responses to Mr. Biden’s information convention on Thursday. Even a query so simple as “why do voters suppose Biden is just too outdated, however not Mr. Trump?” is difficult to reply. It’s clear voters consider so, however the seemingly rationalization is simply as superficial and subjective as the emotions of particular person voters. Subjective, after all, doesn’t imply unimportant. Even essentially the most superficial components like appearance or voice depth can play a robust position in vote alternative. Mr. Biden appears to have crossed an invisible line demarking whether or not a candidate isn’t simply outdated however “too” outdated within the view of many citizens; Mr. Trump has not.
What’s extra, the questions on Mr. Biden’s age are virtually fully with out precedent within the period of recent elections. There has by no means been a president who has confronted this stage of concern about his age — not even Ronald Reagan in 1984, who was eight years youthful than Mr. Biden this cycle. That’s precisely why it’s straightforward to think about how considerations about his age may be politically potent. But it surely additionally means we’ve by no means noticed the political impact of one thing like this earlier than.
Nearly each election options one thing unprecedented, with the potential to shake up the same old patterns of politics. Within the final 4 cycles alone, we’ve witnessed the primary Black presidential major-party nominee, the primary feminine such nominee, the primary with out army or elected expertise, the primary trendy election amid a pandemic, and so forth. In all of those circumstances, pundits and analysts speculated — very fairly — about whether or not these novel candidates or circumstances may yield an surprising end result.
