Sadly, Ali Soufan was proper. One yr in the past, shortly after the October 7 Hamas assault on Israel and the beginning of Israel’s army response, Soufan instructed me that the occasions had “ushered in a brand new period of chaos to the area.” The fallout has seen the displacement of thousands and thousands of Gazans, the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire settlement in Lebanon, and the overthrow of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
But for all of the dying and destruction, a lot continues to be unsettled—and the approaching return of Donald Trump to the White Home provides one other wildcard. Soufan has labored within the area for many years. As an FBI agent, he got here nearer than anybody else to heading off the 9/11 assaults. Now, Soufan leads his personal safety consulting company, the place he facilitates delicate hostage negotiations overseas.
In between flights to the Center East, Soufan spoke with Vainness Honest about every little thing from the character of Syria’s victorious insurgent group (“They proceed to be a terrorist group till they show in any other case”), to how a lot energy Marco Rubio could possess as Trump’s secretary of state (“I imagine every little thing goes to be run straight by the White Home”), to the broader conflicts escalating all all through the Center East. “There’s loads of issues occurring now,” Soufan says, in a serious understatement. “The scenario within the area is actually scary.”
Vainness Honest: Nobody may have predicted precisely how issues would unfold throughout the previous yr. However you’re an professional within the area. Have any of the ramifications stunned even you?
Ali Soufan: We all the time knew that one thing large was going to occur in Syria after October 7 and after the weakening of Iran’s key proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Turkey has moved swiftly to fill the vacuum left by Tehran and to increase its affect. However I don’t suppose even the Turks believed that the Assad regime would collapse this quick.
The Israeli hostages stay an unlimited subject. On Monday president-elect Donald Trump threatened Hamas, saying “all hell will escape” if the hostages aren’t launched by January 20. Is that useful, or is he posturing in case they’re launched sooner, so Trump can declare credit score for scaring them right into a deal?
I believe that it’s solely discuss, and I believe it’s coming from the truth that the scenario may be solved earlier than he takes workplace. The top of the CIA went to Qatar [on Wednesday]. What Trump says doesn’t influence a lot what’s going on within the negotiations. When you’re Hamas, what else can occur? The scenario in Gaza is a complete mess. They’re already dwelling within the deepest degree of hell. I’ve a optimistic feeling concerning the consequence of the negotiations this time.
But even when that a part of the troubles is resolved, Trump might be coping with a deeply unstable area. You’ve labored in counterterrorism for a very long time. The place are the best dangers from the brand new instability?
I believe Turkey will do some form of army operation in opposition to the Kurds [in northern Syria], as a result of they contemplate the Syrian Democratic Forces, that are led by the Kurds, to be a terrorist group on the Turkish border. If Turkey’s operation is profitable, what’s going to occur to the tons of of ISIS fighters which are in Kurdish custody? It may very well be much like what occurred in Iraq, when ISIS declared an Islamic state. The scenario can be very harmful not just for Syria, but additionally for Turkey and the worldwide group, together with the US.
Trump constantly talks like an isolationist, about caring for America and leaving different international locations alone to kind themselves out.
