In 2016, Trump received the Electoral School however misplaced the favored vote. In 2020, he misplaced each, and now triumphantly, with a mandate so highly effective, Trump swept each the Electoral School and the favored vote as Republicans secured the Senate and the Home of Representatives as nicely, making this a clear sweep.
Trump ran a strong and well-executed marketing campaign throughout seven key swing states hammering core points on immigration, the financial system close to inflation, and bringing again jobs in America below the credo of Make America Nice Once more.
Immigration
Immigration was a cornerstone of Trump’s first time period, and it might undoubtedly stay central as he returns to the Oval Workplace. Throughout his first time period between 2017-2021, Donald Trump centered his marketing campaign on “construct the wall”, whereas this time, he touched on 16 million undocumented immigrants within the nation and blamed the Biden-Harris marketing campaign for what he described as dereliction of securing the southern border.
For Trump, managing immigration—each authorized and unlawful—might be a posh, expensive, and politically charged problem. A Trump administration will seemingly proceed insurance policies aimed toward curbing unlawful immigration, however the challenge is intertwined with authorized immigration considerations.
H-1B visas have been the central focus for the Indian tech and white-collar staff in the USA, particularly within the STEM line of labor. STEM graduates are essential for U.S. industries, notably since a talented workforce is required to satisfy calls for in expertise and innovation and high-end manufacturing, notably chip design. Roughly 70% of H-1Bs are granted to Indian residents.
For many years, the expertise trade has supplied the U.S. with a worldwide aggressive edge, and Silicon Valley continues to epitomize that hub for innovation. The Indian tech employee performs a significant half in the USA’ tech financial system, because the brightest minds search American establishments for cutting-edge STEM schooling after which go on to construct sturdy tech start-ups therefore the very financial and revolutionary energy of Silicon Valley is tied to the Indian tech employee.
Nonetheless, Trump’s place on limiting immigration means there may very well be challenges for the H-1B employee. Until unlawful immigration is addressed successfully, the Trump administration could discover it troublesome to steadiness public sentiment with the financial want for a talented workforce. His administration must navigate a fragile steadiness between tightening borders and making certain that the U.S. workforce stays globally aggressive, particularly as China seeks to shut the financial hole.
Jobs, financial system and inflation
Trump’s main message to his base through the marketing campaign was that the financial system would proceed to face main headwinds, and inflation would proceed to weigh on American households. Inflation was the primary challenge for a number of voters, particularly blue-collar staff, who had been an important a part of Trump’s base in 2016, 2020, and now in 2024. Job creation, notably in manufacturing and expert labor, might be vital. Nonetheless, rising inflation and the lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic imply that blue-collar America will count on Trump to ship on his guarantees to revitalize jobs and decrease the price of dwelling.
Trump’s financial technique may embrace a continuation of tariffs and a push to re-shore manufacturing jobs. The aim could be to stimulate the financial system, however tariffs—particularly a proposed 20% on imported items from most nations—might result in bumps in commerce relationships, notably with China, the place Trump has proposed tariffs as excessive as 60%. American firms will seemingly undertake a “China-plus-one” technique, the place they keep entry to the Chinese language market whereas diversifying operations to different nations like India.
This technique aligns with the instance set by Apple, whose a number of distributors have invested almost $5 billion in manufacturing throughout the states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. This has led the tech large to reportedly assemble $14 billion value of iPhones in India in 2024 – double the earlier 12 months’s manufacturing.
Trump might want to be certain that the U.S. financial system continues to draw high-skilled manufacturing expertise to assist these shifts, addressing each workforce coaching and immigration coverage.
Geopolitical tensions
The worldwide stage has grow to be extra risky since Trump left workplace, and a second time period would seemingly see him grappling with heightened tensions in Jap Europe with the warfare in Ukraine nearing its third 12 months, the full-blown battle within the Center East that has unfold past Israel’s borders to Lebanon and direct battle with Iran, and the Indo-Pacific theatre as China flexes its maritime muscular tissues.
Relations with Beijing proceed to stay fraught. In Trump’s first time period, he secured a dedication from China to buy $200 billion in US items — a dedication that fell quick. Underneath Trump 2.0, we might count on a renewed give attention to pressuring China to uphold its guarantees or face steep tariffs, as excessive as 60%. Such measures might additional stress an already tense U.S.-China relationship.
China’s ambitions within the Asia-Pacific and its aim of changing into a dominant international energy would solely intensify these stress factors. This accentuates the function of the Quad within the Indo-Pacific as President Trump would seemingly proceed to construct on the progress that the Quad made below President Biden.
The Quad is a formidable almost $35 trillion coalition of 4 democracies – US, India, Japan, and Australia, that’s reshaping the financial panorama within the area. The financial imaginative and prescient of the Quad presents itself as a beacon of stability, prosperity, and innovation. Together with Australia, and Japan, the USA, and India share a imaginative and prescient of a free and open Indo-Pacific.
The USA has treaty alliances and commerce offers in place with Japan and Australia, whereas India has a strong commerce settlement with Japan and a framework in place with Australia. By way of the Commerce Coverage Discussion board (TPF), each Washington and New Delhi have made progress on excellent commerce points. The Quad can function a significant framework as a substitute of bilateral commerce offers to bolster financial engagement between the 4 democracies.
The geo-economic part
With its rising industrial capabilities, India might serve instead provide chain base for American firms, permitting them to cut back their reliance on China. This pivot additionally aligns with India’s pursuits because it seeks to determine itself as a producing hub and construct on resilient provide chains.
Elon Musk performed a significant function in Trump’s return to the White Home, each publicly endorsing him and contributing closely to the marketing campaign. Musk is anticipated to be a outstanding enterprise voice and anticipated to have a major affect within the new Trump administration. Musk has indicated that he’s eager to convey Starlink Tesla to the nation.
Tesla in India, wouldn’t simply enhance e-mobility and work for India’s local weather objectives, however be a significant think about India’s chip manufacturing capabilities, that autonomous autos depend on.
With over 1,700 World Functionality Facilities in India supporting American firms and 50% of Qualcomm’s mental property being generated there, India has established itself as a useful accomplice in analysis and improvement. Main defence firms like Boeing, Lockheed, and RTX are additionally increasing their manufacturing presence in India, enhancing US-India defence cooperation and bolstering India’s indigenous defence manufacturing capabilities.
The Russia issue
India’s dependence on Russia for defence has been steadily diminishing as US-India defence cooperation grows in an space the place the 2 are aligned on the intersection of vital expertise and defence. Commerce between the 2 nations is at $ 200 billion, dwarfing India’s financial ties with Russia.
Nonetheless, India persevering with to import oil from Russia stays a sore level for the U.S. Nonetheless, Washington understands, that India is a internet power importer and now the world’s most populous nation, and to satisfy the wants of its 1.4 billion residents. The incoming Trump administration would seemingly assist insurance policies that bolster India’s power independence and align the 2 nations on shared safety pursuits, though Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accords reveals that he received’t be as supportive of unpolluted power.
As tensions with Beijing escalate, the US-India relationship will proceed to play a significant function in regional stability. From safety to expertise, financial ties, and people-to-people connections, the strategic partnership between Washington and New Delhi stays politically agnostic and sturdy.
The US and India are increasingly aligned geopolitically and Prime Minister Modi shares a convivial rapport with President Trump and can seemingly decide up from the place they left off in 2021. President Trump too has referred to as Prime Minister Modi “his good friend” and Prime Minister Modi was one of many first three telephone calls that the President-elect made to world leaders.
As Trump comes again to energy, the imaginative and prescient might be to construct on the progress made throughout his earlier time period and the Biden administration, cementing India as a cornerstone of America’s Indo-Pacific technique. Trump’s 100-day problem contains tackling inflation and manufacturing calls for, which might require a steadiness between tariffs, job creation, and immigration reform and the issues on the border.
On the world stage, the dual conflicts in Ukraine and the Center East will proceed to empty assets, and President Trump has not shied away from chopping funding assist and prioritising investments at residence.
Trump would additionally have to deal with more and more assertive strikes by China, assist companions like India, and handle commerce tensions with pragmatism. The U.S.-India relationship, poised for progress, might be important for each nations to satisfy their strategic objectives in an unsure world.
Trump has taken an assertive strategy previously, however a Trump 2.0 might want to mood an assertive strategy with the fragile intricacies of pragmatic fiscal and prudent international coverage.
Mukesh Aghi is the President and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Discussion board (USISPF).
