2024 Election Voter Turnout Map: See Where Trump Gained and Harris Lost

It might seem to be a transparent story: Donald Trump gained the election by profitable essentially the most votes. He improved on his totals, including about 2.5 million extra votes than 4 years in the past. However simply as consequential to the end result had been Kamala Harris’s losses: She earned about 7 million fewer votes in contrast with Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s efficiency in 2020.

Ms. Harris failed to seek out new voters in three of the seven swing states and in 80 p.c of counties throughout the nation, a New York Occasions evaluation exhibits. Within the locations the place she matched or exceeded Mr. Biden’s vote totals, she didn’t match Mr. Trump’s features.

We are able to’t but know what number of Biden voters backed Mr. Trump or didn’t vote in any respect this cycle. However the decline in assist for Ms. Harris in a number of the nation’s most liberal areas is especially notable. In contrast with Mr. Biden, she misplaced tons of of hundreds of votes in main cities together with Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, and total earned about 10 p.c fewer votes in counties Mr. Biden gained 4 years in the past.

Mr. Trump, against this, discovered new voters in most counties, with important features in purple states like Texas and Florida and likewise in blue states like New Jersey and New York.

Larry Sabato, the director of the Heart for Politics on the College of Virginia, acknowledged that Biden voters who swung towards Mr. Trump performed a component in Ms. Harris’s loss, however pointed to low Democratic turnout because the bigger issue.

“They simply weren’t excited,” Mr. Sabato stated of Democratic voters. “They had been in all probability disillusioned by inflation, possibly the border. They usually didn’t have the motivation to stand up and exit to vote.”

The nationwide rightward shift is a continuation of voting patterns seen within the final two elections. Even in his 2020 defeat, Mr. Trump discovered new voters throughout the nation. (Each events earned extra votes in 2020 than in 2016.) And though Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022, when some had predicted a “purple wave,” they misplaced many citizens who had been dissatisfied with rising costs, pandemic-era restrictions and immigration coverage.

On the native degree, three distinct patterns assist illustrate the general final result in 2024:

1. The place each candidates gained votes, however Trump gained extra.

In hard-fought Georgia, each events discovered new voters, however Mr. Trump outperformed Ms. Harris. For instance, in Fulton County, which incorporates most of Atlanta, Ms. Harris gained about 4,500 votes, however Mr. Trump gained greater than 7,400.

How vote totals modified in Atlanta precincts

The place every candidate acquired
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang

Along with his features within the Atlanta space, Mr. Trump gained new voters in each different a part of Georgia. He flipped the state again to Republicans after Mr. Biden’s win there in 2020. He equally outran Ms. Harris the place she made features in Wake County, N.C., Lancaster County, Pa., and Montgomery County, Texas.

2. The place Trump gained a bit and Harris misplaced a bit.

In Milwaukee County in swing-state Wisconsin, Ms. Harris misplaced 1,200 voters in contrast with Mr. Biden’s complete in 2020, whereas Mr. Trump gained greater than 3,500.

How vote totals modified in Milwaukee precincts

The place every candidate acquired
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang

Ms. Harris nonetheless gained the county at massive, however her margins there and in different liberal enclaves of Wisconsin weren’t sufficient to carry off Mr. Trump’s victories in rural, blue-collar counties that voted Republican in 2016 and 2020.

Democrats’ incapability to keep up their vote totals in battleground states was additionally obvious within the essential areas round Charlotte, N.C., Flint, Mich., and Scranton, Pa.

3. The place Trump gained a bit and Harris misplaced rather a lot.

Mr. Trump gained Florida’s Miami-Dade County, turning into the primary Republican to take action since 1988. However once more, Ms. Harris’s loss was simply as a lot of the story as his achieve: Mr. Trump gained about 70,000 new votes within the county, whereas she misplaced almost 140,000.

How vote totals modified in Miami precincts

The place every candidate acquired
extra votes
or
fewer votes in 2024, in contrast with 2020

Trump

Harris

By Eli Murray, Elena Shao, Charlie Sensible and Christine Zhang

Different counties that Mr. Trump flipped had related vote disparities. In 21 of those 77 counties, Mr. Trump acquired fewer votes on this election than in 2020, however the Democratic vote drop-off was a lot steeper. This occurred from coast to coast, from Fresno County, Calif., to Pinellas County, Fla.

Joel Benenson, the chief pollster for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, stated he thought Democratic turnout was damage by the occasion’s lack of a presidential main. (Mr. Biden dropped out of the race in July.) That course of, he stated, helps energize core voters who become involved with volunteering, making telephone calls and knocking on doorways early within the 12 months.

“That was an actual problem for Vice President Harris, who had a brief runway and would have benefited from an actual main season,” Mr. Benenson stated. “Republicans had a contested main — even with a former president, they didn’t simply hand it to him.”

Mr. Trump was clearly capable of harness enthusiasm past his base. He made features throughout virtually all teams ranging in demographics, schooling and revenue, together with people who historically made up the Democratic coalition. Ms. Harris didn’t match Mr. Biden among the many identical teams.

Pre-election polls confirmed minority voters swinging towards Mr. Trump, and he appeared to make features with these teams. He picked up votes in majority-Hispanic counties and in Black neighborhoods of main cities, a preliminary evaluation of precinct knowledge exhibits. However he misplaced votes, as did Ms. Harris, in majority-Black counties, particularly these within the South the place turnout dropped total.

Mr. Trump discovered new voters in additional than 30 states, together with within the battleground states that had been the websites of sturdy campaigning. His features had been modest in most different locations. Ms. Harris was capable of enhance on Mr. Biden’s efficiency in solely 4 of the seven battlegrounds and simply 5 states total.

John McLaughlin, Mr. Trump’s marketing campaign pollster, stated the marketing campaign was centered on discovering supporters who weren’t dependable voters and ensuring they turned out to the polls. He stated that inner polling confirmed that voters who solid a poll in 2024 after not voting in 2022 or 2020 supported Mr. Trump, 52 p.c to 46 p.c.

“The technique was very very like 2016, to convey out informal voters who thought the nation was on the fallacious monitor,” Mr. McLaughlin stated. “These voters blamed Biden and Harris and customarily had constructive approval for Trump.”