Washington’s political class is grappling with an uncomfortable, and unprecedented, actuality: That is probably the most unpredictable election of their careers.
The presidential race is statistically tied in all seven battleground states, making a clear Donald Trump or Kamala Harris sweep — or one thing in between — about equally seemingly. Republicans face good odds of flipping the Senate however can’t rule out the chance that Democrats choose up less-than-ironclad GOP seats in Texas or Florida. And whereas management of the Home typically displays the top-of-the-ticket consequence, strategists on each side of the aisle are girding for a shock.
By no means in trendy political historical past has there been a lot uncertainty heading into Election Day — with such a wide selection of doable outcomes.
“The one intellectually trustworthy reply is to say: I don’t know,” stated Douglas Heye, a veteran GOP strategist and former communications director for the Republican Nationwide Committee. “Every part I see contradicts itself.”
Patti Solis Doyle, a Democratic strategist and a former marketing campaign supervisor for Hillary Clinton in 2008, stated it’s probably the most unpredictable election of her greater than three many years of engaged on presidential campaigns.
“Usually I might say that the Home goes the place the presidential goes. That’s kind of the usual,” Solis Doyle stated. “However I don’t assume that’s the case right here. In a few of these battleground states the place it’s tied, you see a few of the Senate races going both D or R, full on, and it’s befuddling.”
“I don’t assume anyone is aware of how this may prove, and individuals who let you know they do know, I believe, are mendacity to you or are consuming the Kool-Help,” she added.
Strategists on each side of the aisle attribute the uncertainty round what’s going to occur come Tuesday largely to an intractably divided voters — with uncharacteristically little apparent motion within the polls. Among the many unknowns: Will Trump peel away a pair proportion factors of younger Black males? Will Harris make inroads with a small variety of Republican ladies? How large will the gender hole be between younger males and younger ladies? And, importantly, how does all of it add up?
“Do I believe numerous Republicans are going to vote for Kamala Harris? No means,” stated Mark Graul, a Republican strategist who ran George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection marketing campaign in Wisconsin. But when Harris can get 2 or 3 p.c of Republicans to vote for her “that’s going to make a distinction” in a state like Wisconsin, which is able to seemingly be gained by simply 10,000 or 20,000 votes, he stated.
“Due to how shut it’s, every thing issues. Each demographic issues,” he added.
Whereas sure states at this level appear to strategists extra prone to go to at least one candidate over one other, the polls within the seven states are a whole tossup, with neither candidate main by greater than 3 factors in The New York Times’ polling average. Due to that, strategists on each side of the aisle say at this level they wouldn’t be shocked if both candidate gained any given state — or ran the desk to an Electoral Faculty rout.
Although the standard knowledge tends to say Trump’s assist is undercounted within the polls, many specialists are warning that might not be the case. If, as the Times’ Nate Cohen notes, the state-level polling error this yr is identical because it was in 2022, Harris would win each swing state save for Georgia, swapping out the Peach State from Joe Biden’s electoral coalition for a win in North Carolina. But when polling error this yr replicates 2020, it means a clear sweep for Trump. That’s a 77-vote Electoral Faculty vote swing.
And on Saturday, strategists have been thrown one other curve ball. A gold-standard ballot out of The Des Moines Register in Iowa — which isn’t a swing state — discovered Harris up 3 factors within the state, suggesting an uncommon quantity of energy for the vice chairman amongst ladies, and notably those that are older or establish as unbiased.
“Let’s be clear that in a really divided nation, a small little break of 1 to 2 factors in both candidate’s wave might equate to an enormous Electoral Faculty political tsunami,” stated Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and former Trump administration appointee.
That uncertainty exists down poll as effectively. Republicans seemingly had the within monitor to take the higher chamber, beginning the cycle with the posh of being virtually totally on offense. And with Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin retiring in West Virginia, a assured one-seat pickup for Republicans, the GOP wanted to solely win the presidency — or, failing that, flip one further seat — to regulate the chamber.
However Republicans have struggled to have the ability to put away that last state. Their greatest wager is — lastly — taking down Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), the place Republicans have been so assured of their victory in a bit over every week that they’ve canceled some main advert buys. However the FiveThirtyEight polling average in Montana has the race nonetheless aggressive — a five-point lead for Republican Tim Sheehy — that chamber management isn’t any positive factor.
At one excessive, Republicans might take down Tester, after which run a sweep — or one thing near it — within the different core battleground Senate races they’re attempting to flip in Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Arizona, placing them at a majority within the mid-50s. On the different, Tester might pull off a shock win — a not-impossible feat in a small state — and Democrats might defend their different, non-West Virginia battlegrounds, and possibly even choose up a seat in Texas or Florida, two seats the place the Republican incumbent is favored however not a positive wager.
That state of affairs would, in essence, be a supersized model of Democrats’ overperformance in 2022. Two years in the past, they have been favored to lose the chamber, particularly with an unpopular President Joe Biden on the high of the ticket. However after the Supreme Court docket overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats truly netted a seat within the Senate, flipping Pennsylvania and defending their difficult map — one thing these on the left are hoping will occur once more.
“I believe that the 2024 polls are affected by 2022-itis, which means they’re but once more not measuring the power, the undercurrent, of how ladies really feel round reproductive rights,” stated Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist who labored on Hillary Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “We have now seen that post-Dobbs, the occasion that has been overperforming has been Democrats, repeatedly in each single election, particular and in any other case, Democrats have overperformed.”
After which there’s the Home. The variety of aggressive Home seats has usually decreased for the reason that Nineteen Nineties — from 173 districts inside 5 proportion factors of the nationwide presidential vote, as measured by the Partisan Voting Index, all the way down to 86 this yr, according to a Brennan Center analysis. However of these, solely about two dozen seats are true tossups.
These Home seats might all break a method and provides both occasion a stable majority — or both occasion might eke out a majority of simply a few seats, like Republicans have had this chamber.
And strategists are absolutely ready to see an array of blended outcomes down the poll.
In Arizona, for example, Democrats seem poised for victory within the Senate race with Rep. Ruben Gallego polling well ahead of Republican Kari Lake, might flip or tie management of the state legislature and will take over the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors for the primary time in latest reminiscence — at the same time as these on each side of the aisle really feel like a Trump win within the state is barely extra seemingly than a Harris one.
“I believe you’ll get numerous conflicting indicators,” stated Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican political guide within the state who left the occasion within the Trump period. “Possibly the Democrats take management of the chamber out right here too, possibly take over the county board of supervisors, however Trump nonetheless wins the state. That’s loopy.”
There’s just one factor political operatives really feel sure about: that the presidency, and management of Congress, gained’t be determined Tuesday night time.
“This election is like freshman yr of highschool, full of hysteria, dreading each morning you get up questioning what indignity and ugliness you have been going to face at present, and it appeared like it might by no means finish,” stated Barrett Marson, a GOP strategist in Arizona. “However finally, as everyone knows, you come out on the opposite facet. Scarred for all times, however you survive.”
