All of it comes right down to Pennsylvania.
That isn’t an exaggeration.
If Kamala Harris loses Pennsylvania, Donald Trump is the forty seventh president of the USA.
Now you possibly can say the identical about Michigan or Wisconsin, nevertheless it particularly appears {that a} Democratic candidate ought to be capable to carry the Keystone State.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Photos)
And that’s why, in my opinion, Kamala ought to have picked Josh Shapiro, its widespread governor.
I’ve nothing towards Tim Walz, of soccer coach fame, however I don’t see what he’s performed for the ticket. There’s a cause the marketing campaign hasn’t let him do any solo interviews – a stark distinction with JD Vance, who is continually doing interviews and holding press conferences.
Actually, Vance now regularly takes reporters’ questions in entrance of supporters, who boo the journalists, typically even earlier than they begin talking.
We’ll discover out whether or not Walz can assume on his ft when he faces off towards Vance in tonight’s VP debate. Essentially the most beneficiant factor I can say is that the Coach will likely be rusty.
Gov. Tim Walz speaks to his supporters at Grand Rapids Public Museum on Sept. 12. (Detroit Free Press/Adam Vander Kooy/USA In the present day Community by way of Imagn Photos)
Let’s have a look at the most recent numbers.
The Actual Clear Politics common has Trump main Harris by a miniscule margin, 48.1% to 47.9%, which in fact is a statistical tie.
At 538, the micro-margin in Pennsylvania is flipped, with Harris averaging 47.9% and Trump at 47.1%, one other tie.
Now think about that Shapiro, who’s extra of a average liberal than the uber-progressive Walz, was the operating mate. And let’s say Shapiro had introduced in one other 50,000 votes because the home-state man. You may see the place that might tip the stability.
Kamala didn’t decide Josh for 2 causes. That they had a tough dialog when she interviewed him, with the governor insisting on an influential function if he have been to relinquish his present job. However so what? Presidents and their veeps usually don’t see eye to eye. She most well-liked the picture of Walz, hunter and fisherman, to the prospect of two East Coast attorneys.
However the extra essential cause is extra troubling. Harris was below stress from the anti-Israel faction in her social gathering to not faucet Shapiro, who’s Jewish and a robust supporter of the Jewish state.
So the vp successfully handed veto energy to this minority faction, which mainly backs the Hamas terrorists who would wipe out Israel, and would have confronted per week or two of controversy because of this. I mentioned on the time this may be a world-class mistake if she misplaced Pennsylvania.
An anti-Israel protester, in straw hat, interrupts Vice President Kamala Harris in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. (Charlie Creitz/Fox Information)
The explanation Harris has spent a lot time within the Pittsburgh space is that the western finish of the state is way more conservative than the japanese part anchored by Philadelphia. Her objective is to carry down Trump’s margin in part of the state that he’ll simply win.
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One drawback Harris faces proper now could be that she makes little information. By selecting “pleasant” interviewers, comparable to MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle, who has trashed Trump as a hazard to democracy, she avoids robust questions and followups.
Visiting the Mexican border was a wise transfer, not simply because Trump has a significant lead on immigration, however as a result of Harris broke into the information cycle, the place photos can rely greater than phrases, and tried to place herself as harder than Joe Biden on the problem.
In any other case, I’m simply listening to chunks of her stump speech in response to questions, beginning with how her mom raised her. Repetition is essential in politics, however when you don’t throw in a couple of new traces, the press is left and not using a headline.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a rally on Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photograph/Carolyn Kaster)
In the meantime, Trump over the weekend referred to as Harris “mentally impaired,” saying Biden simply received outdated however she was born that means. He additionally mentioned Harris must be impeached, and possibly prosecuted, for the way in which she helped run the nation.
Now that’s basic Trump. By utilizing over-the-top rhetoric, he sparks a media debate about whether or not he’s gone too far, and that debate revolves across the phrases “Kamala” and “mentally impaired.”
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Harris has correctly not responded to each Trump jab. However bear in mind, Trump advantages from adverse protection as a lot as constructive protection as a result of he’s driving the information agenda.
Right here’s a pool report from Harris at a West Coast political occasion over the weekend: “She then switched her remarks to speaking concerning the want for complete immigration reform. VP Harris remarks on the problem have been similar to her remarks in Arizona on Friday.” In different phrases, no information.
Take into consideration this: Trump has been completely pummeled by a hostile press corps, is a twice-impeached convicted felon and carries the burden of Jan. 6. Harris has been using a rare wave of constructive press, and but she’s slipped barely within the polls and is tied in Pennsylvania.
And there’s no query that if she loses there, the election is over.
