The pundits predict the presidential election might be shut. So ought to folks put together for contingencies?
There’s actually just one contingency for this state of affairs. It’s referred to as a contingent election.
What’s that?
Don’t really feel badly should you’ve by no means heard of a contingent election. The time period isn’t even talked about within the Structure. Nonetheless, Article II, Part 3 of the Structure and the twelfth Modification handle the method for settling a dispute within the Electoral School the place no candidate scores the magic variety of 270 electoral votes. Or, if there’s a tie.
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The U.S. has solely undergone a contingent election on three events: 1801, to elect President Thomas Jefferson. Then in 1825 to select President John Quincy Adams. Lastly in 1837 to elect Vice President Richard Mentor Johnson.
In a contingent election, the Home selects the President. The Senate picks the Vice President.
However let’s first discover situations for an advanced Electoral School tabulation – which may set off a contingent election.
This is what to anticipate if this yr’s Trump-Harris showdown ends with no candidate receiving 270 Electoral School votes. (AP/Jacquelyn Martin/Nell Redmond)
The potential of a 269-269 Electoral School tie is actual. Let’s say Vice President Harris loses Pennsylvania and Georgia. However she prevails in Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris additionally collects a singular electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district. Maine and Nebraska distribute their electoral votes based mostly on which presidential candidate prevails in every Congressional district. For example, in 2020, Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., gained – at the same time as President Biden carried the district. In Maine’s 2nd Congressional district, Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, gained. But former President Trump bested Mr. Biden in that district. Nebraska has 5 electoral votes. Mr. Trump acquired 4. President Biden, one. Maine has 4 electoral votes. The President earned three. However former President Trump collected one.
There are different situations to get you to an Electoral School tie.
Quick-forward to January sixth, the day the Home and Senate meet in a Joint Session of Congress to certify the Electoral School. We all know what occurred in 2021 with Republicans contesting slates of electoral votes from six states. If Congress fails to certify a winner, or, if there are disputes on numerous batches of electoral votes, it’s potential no candidate hits 270.
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So, it’s then as much as the Home of Representatives to pick out the President and the Senate, the Vice President, in a contingent election.
Right here’s the fascinating half.
Every state votes as a state delegation – however receives just one vote in a contingent election. In different phrases, California, with its 52-member delegation comprised of 40 Democrats, counts the identical as South Dakota, with its lone Republican.
In a contingent election, Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson – South Dakota’s sole congressman – would have as a lot voting energy as California’s whole 52-member delegation. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Pictures)
However we don’t actually know the breakdowns of every Congressional delegation for subsequent yr which may vote in a contingent election. We solely know the breakdown for this Congress. The new Congress isn’t sworn-in till January 3, 2025.
So right here’s an evaluation on the place every state delegation stands now, and the place they may stand come January.
As of this second, Republicans management 26 state delegations – starting from all Republican West Virginia to principally Republican Florida and Texas. Democrats rule in 22 state delegations. That features principally Democratic New York and all Democratic Massachusetts and Connecticut. Two states are tied: Minnesota encompasses a 4/4 break up between the events. North Carolina is split 7/7.
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However what does the Home appear like subsequent yr? Issues would nonetheless favor the GOP – even when Democrats win management of the Home with probably the most seats. And evaluating the map, the chances favor Republicans to manage probably the most state delegations. However nothing is a carried out deal.
So let’s research state delegations which have an opportunity of flipping someway in 2025 – and the way that would sway a contingent election.
Alaska is an enchanting place to begin. Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, gained this statewide seat in a particular election in 2022 after the loss of life of late Rep. Don Younger, R-Alaska. Younger represented the state for 49 years. Peltola is up in opposition to Republican Nick Begich Jr., grandson of late Rep. Nick Begich, Sr., D-Alaska. Sarcastically, Younger took the seat after the elder Begich died in a airplane crash. Additionally on the poll: John Wayne Howe and Eric Hafner.
Ought to Democrats discover themselves dealing with a contingent election, securing the vote of Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola is an absolute should. (AP Picture/Mark Thiessen, File)
If Democrats are to carry the Home for a possible contingent election, they want Peltola to win. Former President Trump gained Alaska in 2020 with 61 % of the vote.
The place may Democrats flip a Congressional delegation of their favor? Arizona is a case research as to why it’s laborious for Democrats to realize traction in state delegations.
Arizona is a swing state on the presidential degree. However there are two Republicans in danger. Rep. Dave Schweikert, R-Ariz., narrowly gained two years in the past. Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., additionally represents a battleground district. However Republicans presently maintain a 6-3 benefit over Democrats within the Home delegation. Democrats have an outdoor shot at shifting the delegation to 5-4 of their favor ought to they knock off two incumbents. However that’s dicey.
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Colorado’s Home districts presently favor the Democrats, 5-3. However to be able to preserve that benefit and keep away from a 4-4 tie, freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo, D-Colo., should win re-election. Caraveo gained her first time period with lower than 50 % of the vote in 2022.
As talked about, Maine awards its electoral vote proportionately. Golden is likely one of the most reasonable Democrats within the Home, routinely profitable shut races. However Maine solely has two Home seats. Rep. Chellie Pingree, D-Maine, holds the opposite one. Pingree is favored to win this fall. Nonetheless, if Golden loses, Maine’s delegation is tied. How that delegation votes in a contingent election is anyone’s guess. A tie basically nullifies that state’s vote in a contingent election on the Home ground.
Within the contingent election of 1801, the Home delegations of Vermont and Maryland have been break up evenly. The Home then consumed 36 ballots earlier than electing Thomas Jefferson. One of many causes Jefferson grew to become president is that Maryland’s Home delegation finally dropped its impasse. Maryland had voted 4-4 for days. However Jefferson prevailed after 4 of Maryland’s Home members didn’t vote on the thirty sixth poll.
A loss by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee may break up Nevada’s four-member delegation in half. Ought to her challenger, Drew Johnson, win, he would be a part of fellow Republican Mark Amodei and Democratic colleagues Dina Titus and Steven Horsford within the Silver State’s congressional ranks. (Invoice Clark/CQ-Roll Name, Inc by way of Getty Pictures)
It’s additionally value maintaining a tally of Nevada. Nevada is a key state on the presidential degree. Democrats maintain a 3-1 Home benefit. A loss by Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev., may tie that delegation, 2-2, taking away the Democrats’ benefit.
Minnesota is one other state with a 4-4 tie in its delegation. Most likely the very best likelihood for Democrats right here is to carry the tie and nullify the Gopher State’s vote in a contingent election. Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., traditionally wins with slim margins. A loss by Craig flips the Minnesota delegation to 5-3 in favor of Republicans.
Now, buckle in. North Carolina is the place issues get intriguing.
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The Tar Heel State options 14 Home members, break up evenly 7-7 amongst Democrats and Republicans. However because of redistricting, Republicans possible achieve within the Home delegation subsequent yr. North Carolina may favor the GOP 10-4 or possibly even 11-3. So the state may very well be a boon to Republicans if the Home decides the presidency in a contingent election.
However right here’s the rub:
North Carolina is now in play on the presidential degree. What occurs if Harris wins all 16 of North Carolina’s electoral votes – however there’s nonetheless a contingent election within the Home as a result of no candidate reached 270? Does the North Carolina Home delegation – now leaning closely towards the GOP – ignore that truth in a contingent election on the Home ground and vote for former President Trump? Or do these Home members – principally Republicans – forged their ballots for Harris as a result of that expresses the need of the voters of their state?
North Carolina’s redrawn congressional map, which successfully strongarmed Rep. Wiley Nickel and two different Democrats out of the Home, is prone to dramatically alter the state’s trajectory in a contingent election. (AP Picture/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)
Home members aren’t certain in any approach, form or kind to mirror the end result of the favored vote or Electoral School of their states. Home members can vote nonetheless they need.
Contemplate Georgia. It is extremely aggressive on the presidential degree. Nonetheless, Republicans lead 9-5 within the Home delegation. That delegation isn’t on the sting. Let’s say Harris wins Georgia. How does Georgia’s delegation vote in a contingent election?
Pennsylvania is slightly like North Carolina. The Keystone State is up for grabs this fall. Democrats command a 9-8 benefit in its Home delegation. Nonetheless, that’s not a lock. Reps. Chris Deluzio, D-Penn., Susan Wild, D-Penn., and Matt Cartwright, D-Penn., all symbolize aggressive districts. On the Republican aspect, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Penn., has a district which has the potential to be in play. Pennsylvania is difficult for Democrats to carry on the Home degree – no matter what occurs on the prime of the ticket.
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The problem for Democrats in Michigan is sort of a carbon copy of Pennsylvania. Michigan is a must-win state for each Harris and the previous President. Democrats have a 7-6 edge within the Home delegation. They’re defending the seat of Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., who’s now working for Senate. Slotkin normally gained her seat with slightly greater than 50 % of the vote. However Democrats should additionally preserve the seats of retiring Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., and Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Mich. Nonetheless, Democrats hope to flip the district presently held by Rep. John James, R-Mich. James narrowly gained in 2022.
Virginia is the final state delegation which is really in play in 2024. There may be an outdoor likelihood Virginia’s 13 electoral votes may very well be up for grabs within the presidential election. However that’s removed from assured. Democrats presently maintain a 6-5 edge within the Home delegation.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., is retiring to run for governor subsequent yr. Spanberger is a centrist Democrat who flipped one of many most-competitive districts within the nation in 2018. Democrats should maintain her seat together with the district of retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Va. Wexton is stepping down for well being causes. Wexton’s race was nearer than anticipated in 2022. Nonetheless, Democrats hope to select up a seat gained in 2022 by Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., with 51 % of the vote.
Absent a win in Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans’ district, Democrats should retain the seat held by retiring Rep. Abigail Spanberger (pictured) to maintain their maintain on Virginia’s congressional delegation. (AP Picture/Nathan Howard, File)
In brief, Home Democrats actually don’t have numerous probabilities to make inroads in opposition to Republicans with state delegations. It’s ironic as a result of Democrats have a great likelihood of gaining management of the Home. However Democrats run up their general Home numbers in Massachusetts and California. They’re not aggressive in North Dakota, South Dakota and Utah. So, the GOP maintains these delegations.
Relating to a contingent election, the very best Democrats can do is maintain present “battlegrounds,” like Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia and preserve a tie in Minnesota. Additionally they must keep away from a tie in Nevada, Colorado and Maine. At this writing, there are zero probabilities for Democratic delegation pickups. It boils right down to defending 5 shut states on the delegation degree, ducking ties in three states and retaining issues the place they’re in Minnesota. Even so, Republicans possible seize the delegation in North Carolina.
If that evaluation holds, Democrats could solely management 22 delegations in January, 2025. That’s in comparison with 27 held by Republicans if North Carolina goes the best way we anticipate.
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Even so, it’s potential Democrats may lose seats in presidential battlegrounds like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Or Peltola may lose in Alaska. It’s fully believable that Republicans may management near 30 state delegations in comparison with Democrats hovering round 20.
That doesn’t bode properly for Harris if the election for President is pitched into the Home.
Within the contingent election of 1825, the Home in the end elected President John Quincy Adams, the son of President John Adams, one of many vanquished candidates within the disputed 1800 election which in the end went to Jefferson. Future President Andrew Jackson scored a lot of the electoral votes wanted to win. However the Home nonetheless sided with the youthful Adams. So, it’s removed from sure {that a} contingent election displays the electoral vote.
There’s no expertise with this archaic train within the fashionable Congress. It’s a gambit unused for practically two centuries. And due to that, nobody is aware of the way it will go.
